Consulting analysts in mining, metals and commodities
Price Forecasting
SFA (Oxford) has a global reputation for independently assessing current and future PGM market trends in order to forecast the metal price dynamics of platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium and iridium. We have provided market analysis and price forecasts to a range of clients, including all the major producers, a number of junior PGM companies, new market entrants, mining consultants and many leading financial institutions.
Our services are tailored to each client’s needs and include the provision of market summaries and credible metal price forecasts as part of project feasibility documentation, and for IPO listing purposes. We produce detailed long-range yearly price forecasts for project evaluation modelling and strategic investment decision-making purposes. As a component of our price forecasting expertise, we can also generate sophisticated PGM price probability distribution models for the purposes of ‘Monte Carlo’ simulations.
SFA (Oxford)’s price forecasting methodology is based on the following:
- An independent assessment of long-term supply and demand trends in platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium and iridium markets out to 2020 and beyond;
- PGM producer economics (to establish mine closure inducement pricing);
- price flexing of NPV models for new projects and established producers (to calculate prices required to encourage new supply);
- the economics and politics of PGM-producing regions;
- currency rates;
- a mathematically derived PGM basket price cycle;
- price risk (forecast statistical distributions of PGM prices); and
- scenario generation and analysis.
Through our expert associates, Brook Hunt (now a Wood Mackenzie company), we are also able to offer price forecasts for gold, nickel and copper to cover all the major metal revenues (6E PGMs and base metal by-products) from PGM mining.