The Rhodium Market
Rhodium price drivers
An introduction to rhodium
Rhodium is still the most effective catalytic metal to cut NOx emissions and so it remains a key component of three-way catalysts for gasoline vehicles, where demand growth is robust. As a result, rhodium demand is set to increase, whilst a sustained weaker market for platinum could further cut primary rhodium supplies, although more recycling will help to offset some of this shortfall.
Rhodium demand has suffered losses in both gasoline and diesel powertrains. The price spike to over $10,000/oz in 2008 put the metal firmly in the substitution zone. Both platinum and rhodium lost out as lean NOx traps (LNTs), which seemed the preferred emissions aftertreatment choice for Euro 6 prior to 2008, have been partly engineered out through a combination of price volatility and increasingly stringent CO2 targets. Automakers have instead taken well-proven selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technology from heavy-duty vehicles and downsized it for cars. Although expensive and requiring maintenance (urea top-ups), SCRs have less of an impact on fuel efficiency (and so CO2 emissions) compared to LNTs.
Rhodium’s price volatility has led to loadings being cut to the bare minimum, and palladium has replaced some rhodium.
Rhodium price news and insights
SFA's expert view on the palladium price spike
18 December 2023 | Dr Ralph Grimble
The palladium price surged last week due to a convergence of positive factors. The Fed acknowledged the peak in US inflation during its press conference, leading to a more dovish outlook for interest rates and a weaker US dollar, supporting commodity prices.
Palladium: How low can it go?
10 November 2023 | Beresford Clarke
On Thursday this week, the price of palladium passed through $1,000/oz for the first time since September 2018. Substitution for platinum in autocatalysts and a less-than-rosy outlook for 2024 autocatalyst demand has contributed to palladium’s ongoing 18-month bear market.
It’s safe-haven vs. speculation as gold hits new highs
11 March 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Cost-cutting is yet to slice into South Africa’s platinum production
26 February 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Vehicle electrification is not nessesarily one way traffic for PGMs
5 February 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Palladium's premium to platinum may disappear this year
22 January 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Rhodium price in context, 1985 to 2023
Rhodium market balance
koz | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | |
Primary rhodium supply | |||||||||
Regional | |||||||||
South Africa | 615 | 620 | 625 | 640 | 475 | 670 | 595 | 585 | |
Russia | 70 | 75 | 75 | 80 | 80 | 75 | 75 | 70 | |
Zimbabwe | 45 | 45 | 40 | 40 | 45 | 40 | 45 | 45 | |
North America | 25 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 15 | |
Other | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
Total | 765 | 775 | 790 | 790 | 630 | 815 | 735 | 720 | |
Rhodium demand and recycling |
|||||||||
Rhodium autocatalyst demand | |||||||||
Gross Rh autocatalyst demand | 835 | 870 | 900 | 1,010 | 925 | 920 | 940 | 930 | |
Rh autocatalyst recycling | 280 | 305 | 335 | 355 | 330 | 365 | 310 | 305 | |
Net Rh autocatalyst demand | 555 | 565 | 565 | 655 | 590 | 550 | 630 | 625 | |
Industrial rhodium demand | 180 | 155 | 210 | 170 | 135 | 125 | 125 | 140 | |
Other rhodium recycling | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
Gross rhodium demand | 1,015 | 1,025 | 1,110 | 1,180 | 1,060 | 1,040 | 1,065 | 1,075 | |
Rhodium recycling | 280 | 305 | 340 | 355 | 335 | 370 | 310 | 310 | |
Net rhodium demand | 735 | 720 | 775 | 820 | 725 | 670 | 755 | 765 | |
Rhodium market balance | |||||||||
Rhodium balance (before ETFs) | 30 | 55 | 0 | -30 | -100 | 145 | -15 | -45 | |
Rhodium ETFs (stock allocation) | 5 | -20 | -50 | -15 | -10 | -5 | 0 | ||
Rhodium balance after ETFs | 25 | 75 | 45 | -15 | -90 | 150 | -15 | -45 | |
Rhodium price history | |||||||||
Rhodium price (USD/oz) | 953 | 694 | 1,107 | 2,219 | 3,096 | 11,200 | 15,479 | ||
Rhodium price (GBP/oz) | 624 | 515 | 856 | 1,670 | 3,064 | 8,679 | 12,485 | ||
Rhodium price (EUR/oz) | 858 | 628 | 975 | 1,886 | 3,500 | 9,745 | 14,663 | ||
Rhodium price (CNY/oz) | 5,979 | 4,616 | 7,449 | 14,747 | 27,128 | 76,778 | 103,657 | ||
Rhodium price (ZAR/oz) | 12,000 | 10,184 | 14,757 | 29,651 | 56,736 | 182,407 | 251,503 | ||
Rhodium price (JPY/oz) | 111,239 | 75,584 | 124,122 | 245,435 | 425,105 | 1,191,458 | 1,211,880 | ||
Source: SFA (Oxford). Updated May 2023.
Linked rhodium market reports
SFA (Oxford) provides regular bespoke market intelligence reports on rhodium as well as in-depth studies on recycling, metal flows and price setting.
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