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The 2040 PGM Market Outlook Report

The hydrogen economy

Our latest long-term PGM market view to 2040

SFA (Oxford)'s 2040 Market Outlook report is for companies seeking an even longer-term view on the PGM markets and prices, for either strategic requirements or asset valuations. Released annually, this in-depth, forward-looking reporting service deeply analyses the legislative influences and trends on the PGM markets between 2030 and 2040. Not only does this report extend the view on PGM market segments and metal prices by another 10 years, but it also includes more detail on the drivers affecting these metals over the long term which will all have varying degrees of impact on each PGM.

Discover new long-term market trends

Our ground-breaking study examines, on a deep-dive basis, assesses the evolving nature of the PGM market and metal prices from the likely effects of the rising hydrogen economy against the security of PGM supply, the uptake of automotive technological advances of fuel cell vehicles, the acceleration of electric vehicle use and drivers behind it, recycling potential and existing mine reserve depletion and, evaluation of project resources for tomorrow’s demand. 

The report is packed with an all-inclusive analysis of the platinum, palladium and rhodium markets out to 2040. We are now closely following fuel cell demand in our supply-demand balances (covering autos, electrolysers and other industry use). ESG analytics is also a key feature comprising the entire PGM food chain from suppliers to users. The report addresses the following key areas:

Demand and price forecasting

  • An analysis of global demand trends on a regional basis, covering the upcoming hydrogen economy and major PGM end-use sectors (autocatalysis, jewellery, glass, petroleum, electronics, chemical, nitric acid, and medical/dental) and including the investment sector (such as exchange-traded funds).

  • Vital information needed to best gauge the impacts of platinum, palladium and rhodium usage as a result of shifts in powertrains (gasoline, diesel, hybrid, battery-electric and fuel cell electric vehicles), metal substitution and the potential emergence of significant autocatalyst recycling in China.

  • Long-term sensitivity analysis of automotive technology (where the impact of the accelerated production of electric vehicles is extrapolated beyond SFA’s traditional ten-year forecast period) and gives a detailed forecast evaluation of the PGM market (including metal prices) out to 2040. Specifically, the report highlights the potential fallout from electric car inflection point scenarios in the 2020s on palladium and rhodium demand and prices.

  • Robust, economically derived, PGM price forecasts for 20 years based on fundamental global and regional supply-demand market developments and relevant macroeconomic factors. The Board note offers an explanation of the influence of both the project incentive price and mine closure inducement price on the long-term average price, along with assumptions and calculations used to derive such logic, including an associated incentive price by project. Similarly, SFA (Oxford)'s methodology for a long-term average price beyond a five-year forward curve and its use as a proxy for the average pricing beyond 2021 and 2030 is articulated.

 

Primary supply

  • An analysis of the changing nature and economics of global supply, including the effect on the future supply of the restructuring of the South African industry and recent closures, as well as consideration and profiling of palladium-rich projects scheduled for start-up in the 2020s. An examination of the importance of chrome, iridium and ruthenium to mine revenue and the potential impact on supply is also given.

  • Reports of historical, current and future producer mine supply trends for PGMs, referencing recent expansions and their deliverability, other new projects, including the junior sector coming online, and projects shelved or postponed. PGMs produced as by-products of base-metal mining are also considered.

  • A comprehensive explanation of the long-term cost of producing virgin metal beyond 2030, taking account of the cost and profit dynamics of production on a regional basis (South Africa − Western Bushveld, Eastern Bushveld, Zimbabwe, USA, Canada and Russia). Forward extrapolations of production profiles, costs and margins have been conducted to provide short-, medium- and long-term pictures of producers’ profitability. Mines that do not have PGMs as their primary output such as Nornicke, Vale and Falconbridge are also included in our analysis.

 

Secondary supply

  • An assessment of the future potential volumes of recycling, including autocatalyst, electronics and jewellery scrapping rates. The analysis covers collection rates, types and age of scrap supply, timing, contained metal and ratios, and the business case to recycle, as well as incentive prices and impacts from price volatility.

 

Our detailed analysis and valuable industry insight is backed up by eleven analysts working discreetly with the industry in all areas of the value chain, whether at South African mines, valuing projects and plants around the world, working with fabricators to assess the impact of new end-uses, visiting China and Japan to investigate their jewellery markets or with corporate Boards conducting price risk analysis for multi-million dollar business decisions

Who should read this report?

  • Juniors and mining companies with advanced projects, mines in development or operations ramping up to full production.

  • Investors and financiers requiring a long-term understanding of the risks to platinum-group metals from the rise of electric cars, which is key to investments in PGM mines and projects that are commissioned in the 2020s.

  • Fabricators and industrial end-users requiring strategic direction on the long-term influences on the platinum-group metals markets.

  • Governments and manufacturers concerned about the availability of platinum-group metals for fuel-cell-powered cars and equipment.

  • New business entrants.

 

Live Q&A with the analysts

  • Each 2040 report is supported by a video call, most often hosted through MS Teams, which is led by Beresford Clarke, along with our team of expert PGM analysts where our team highlight the key market aspects and address any further questions you may have.

Contact one of our team for more details

Henk de Hoop

Chief Executive Officer

Beresford Clarke

Managing Director: Technical & Research

David Mobbs

Head of Marketing

Yoshi Mizoguchi Owen

Marketing Associate: Japan

Dr Emilio Soberón

Principal Consultant

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Tuesday, 13 September 2022

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