Consulting analysts in tomorrow’s commodities and technologies

The future of cities and mobility solutions

The last few years have seen unprecedented change in the automotive industry. Instead of simply debating whether cars are gasoline or diesel, small or large, now we are discussing where battery electric vehicles fit into the mix, and whether to own a car at all or rely on new mobility solutions such as ride-hailing and car-sharing. As momentum gathers to combat congestion in cities and improve air quality, we need to know what role the personal automobile will play in tomorrow’s transport mix and what the potential impact may be on demand for PGMs and battery materials (lithium and cobalt).

The drivers for mobility change

SFA (Oxford) has compiled a comprehensive and detailed compendium on the global megatrends and technologies influencing the future of cities and mobility services. The study, Future powertrains: Joining the dots to 2050, delves into global population growth, urbanisation, air quality and decarbonisation, whilst evaluating the range of connected mobility options that may or may not involve personal transportation. Volume 1, The drivers for mobility change, outlines the challenges facing personal mobility and depicts the future scenario for transport solutions. Volumes 2, 3 and 4 provide a deep-dive due diligence study on battery technology, combustion engines, and electric cars and fuel cells, whilst also reviewing the response to change by affected stakeholders.

Questions answered in Volume 1: The drivers for mobility change

Enforcing air quality targets, decarbonisation and easing congestion in urban zones
How are cities and governments dealing with congestion? What are the urbanisation trends around the globe? What are the limits to personal car ownership in different regions and cities?

How can a balance be reached between clean air and people’s need for mobility? How committed are governments to tackling air quality and what can we expect in future? What fraction of pollution comes from cars? Are cars a scapegoat? How do the medium-term targets for CO2 emissions vary by country? What are the emissions timelines by country and are they being enforced?

Mobility on demand: The rise of disruptive technologies and services
How do changes in population (age, density etc.) and income affect the future of mobility? Does increasing urbanisation imply restrictions to car use and necessitate mass transit solutions? Is the drive towards zero emission vehicles a realistic possibility?

Are autonomous driving cars a logical answer to crowded roads? Will the development and growth of car sharing and autonomous vehicles become closely linked in the future? How close are we to high-level autonomous vehicle availability, and what are the barriers to acceptance and adoption? What are the legal hurdles to the use of autonomous vehicles on public roads?

In what ways does current infrastructure need to evolve to accommodate future mobility solutions? What are the costs and environmental benefits associated with alternative mobility offerings?

Car ownership: Risks and opportunities in tomorrow’s smart cities
How can governments affect consumer preferences and what are the risks to car ownership in the future? Are there gaps for growth in car ownership and, if so, where and why?

What are the scenarios and probabilities that will drive change? How will people and goods be moved around cities in the future? Where do mass transit systems fit in? What does the increasing political influence of cities mean for tomorrow’s transport solutions?

Your copy
For more information on The drivers for mobility change report, or to discuss the complete Future powertrains series (Volumes 1-4), please contact us.

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