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PGM Market Outlook Report to 2040

Platinum, palladium and rhodium

Our latest long-term PGM market view to 2040

SFA (Oxford)’s Long-term PGM Market Outlook is an in-depth, forward-looking report on the current and long-term trends and influences acting on the global platinum, palladium, and rhodium markets. It provides price direction and market trends to 2040 and is vital to understanding price risk and the sustainability of these markets. Our latest report delves into the economic strain on PGM producers and the impact on supply and examines recycling's contribution to supply and its forecasted impact on price. The report deep dives into PGM demand out to 2040, investigating the viability of lithium-ion batteries being a power source for heavy-duty vehicles and whether they are a serious competitor to hydrogen fuel cells for light and heavy-duty vehicles. Realistic scenario outcomes for supply and demand variables are also included in this ground-breaking market outlook.

Listen to our podcast overview

SFA's Head of Clean Energy Dr Jenny Watts and Senior Mining Analyst Alex Biddle overview the topics and trends impacting the platinum, palladium, and rhodium markets out to 2040 that featured in this ground-breaking report.

Discover new long-term market trends

Our report is packed with an all-inclusive analysis of the platinum, palladium and rhodium markets out to 2040, and provides a long-term sensitivity analysis of demand with vital information needed to best gauge the impacts in the usage of palladium, platinum and rhodium as a result of falling PGM prices, tightening tailpipe emissions standards, intra-metal substitution trends, shifts in powertrains (advances in electrification of powertrains and pure battery-electric vehicles), and recycling. It analyses the changes in and economics of global supply, as well as long-term production profiles. Also included is a detailed forecast evaluation of the PGM markets (including metal prices and their influence on the jewellery, industrial, chemical, petroleum and investment sectors).

We closely follow fuel cell demand in our supply-demand balances (covering autos, electrolysers and other industry uses) and the competition it faces from batteries to power heavy-duty vehicles. ESG analytics has also become a key feature comprising the entire PGM food chain from suppliers to users, at the start of a long journey and strategic imperative for the PGM sector. The report addresses the following key areas:

Demand and pricing

  • Robust, economically derived, PGM price forecasts out to 2040 based on fundamental global and regional supply-demand market developments and relevant macroeconomic factors. The Board note offers an explanation of the influence of both the project incentive price and mine closure inducement price on the long-term average price, along with assumptions and calculations used to derive such logic, including an associated incentive price by project.

  • An analysis of global demand trends on a regional basis, covering the major PGM end-use sectors (autocatalysis, jewellery, glass, petroleum, electronics, chemical, nitric acid, and medical/dental) and including the investment sector (such as exchange-traded funds).

  • An analysis of global autocatalyst demand, with special attention, applied to environmental legislation affecting global emission standards, gasoline, diesel and hybrid trends, PGM loadings (thrifting) and the substitutability of platinum and palladium in this end-use sector. Future automotive developments and opportunities for PGM demand growth are also commented on, including fuel cell technology, hybrid vehicles and other alternative fuels. A breakdown of autocatalyst history/forecasts by region and associated assumptions (automobile volume and associated intensity of PGM loadings) is included.


Primary supply

  • Reports of historical, current and future producer mine supply trends for PGMs, referencing recent expansions and their deliverability, other new projects, including the junior sector coming online, and projects shelved or postponed. PGMs produced as by-products of base-metal mining are also considered.

  • A comprehensive explanation of the long-term cost of producing virgin metal, taking account of the cost and profit dynamics of production on a regional basis (South Africa − Western Bushveld, Eastern Bushveld, Northern Limb, Zimbabwe, USA, Canada and Russia). Forward extrapolations of production profiles, costs and margins have been conducted to provide short-, medium- and long-term pictures of producers’ profitability. Mines that do not have PGMs as their primary output but which are, nevertheless, substantial PGM producers (‘Nornickel’, a nickel producer, and ‘Canadian other’, which includes the operations of Vale and Falconbridge) are also included in our analysis.

  • Producer profiles, using a consistent framework for comparison based on cash costs and excluding capital, financing and depreciation/amortisation charges. The basic cost measurement reflects primarily physical production costs and includes other cash costs incurred, being mainly corporate overheads, marketing and royalties, etc. Costs are calculated net of the credits arising from the sale of by-products (Net TCC/4E oz). Rand currency sensitivity comments are included and key components/assumptions for the cash cost curve are defined.


Secondary supply

  • An assessment of the future potential volumes of recycling, including autocatalyst, electronics and jewellery scrapping rates. The analysis covers collection rates, types and age of scrap supply, timing, contained metal and ratios, and the business case to recycle, as well as incentive prices and impacts from price volatility.


Our detailed analysis and valuable industry insight is backed up by eleven analysts working discreetly with the industry in all areas of the value chain, whether at South African mines, valuing projects and plants around the world, working with fabricators to assess the impact of new end-uses, visiting China and Japan to investigate their jewellery markets or with corporate Boards conducting price risk analysis for multi-million dollar business decisions.

Who should read this report?

  • Commodity risk managers from fabricators, car companies, petroleum companies and other end-users, for help with assessing price volatility, price direction, or the economics and security of supply.

  • Financiers, pension funds, investors and other financial institutions needing to understand the long-term risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and long-term prices for project and business valuation.

  • Miners, refiners and juniors that require long-term prices and market justification for project appraisal, investment timing, business strategy, and an independent view on the markets.

  • New business entrants.


Live Q&A with the analysts

  • Each biannual report is supported by a video call, most often hosted through MS Teams, which is led by Beresford Clarke, along with our team of expert PGM analysts to highlight the key market aspects and address any further questions you may have.

Contact one of our team for more details

Beresford Clarke

Managing Director: Technical & Research

Dr Jenny Watts

Head of Clean Energy & Sustainability

Dr Ralph Grimble

Operations Director

Alex Biddle

Senior Mining Analyst

Oksan Atilan

Consulting Automotive Analyst

Dr Sandeep Kaler

Market Strategy Analyst

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Related PGM news and insights

Attend our next PGM event

The Oxford Platinum Lectures

Friday, 10 May 2024

New York 05:30 (EDT), London 10:30 (BST), Frankfurt 11:30 (CEST), Johannesburg 11:30 (SAST), Moscow 12:30 (MSK), Tokyo 18:30 (JST)

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New York PGM Lectures

Tuesday, 10 September 2024

New York 05:00 (EDT), London 10:00 (BST), Frankfurt 11:00 (CEST), Johannesburg 11:00 (SAST), Moscow 12:00 (MSK), Tokyo 18:00 (JST)

Our next event

Our special event returned to New York Platinum Week, discussing global events impacting the palladium market.

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