Lithium Market Reports
In response to stronger demand, the lithium market has recently seen expansions in mining operations, as well as new mines in Australia. Furthermore, when electric vehicle uptake hits its inflection point, demand should rapidly appreciate to motivate even more new supply. Even if a likely evolution of battery chemistries is forthcoming, lithium should still be the main energy carrier.
The lithium market
SFA (Oxford) has independently tracked the lithium market and prices on behalf of its clients over the last decade. Of particular interest has been the economics (incentive pricing) of brine and hard rock suppliers relative to growing demand for lithium products, particularly battery-grade materials.
Future potential lithium supply and economics
SFA (Oxford)'s Lithium Market Report provides a detailed evaluation of all existing operations worldwide (by operation, company and country), including the unique attributes of brine deposits in South America, as well as hard rock deposits elsewhere.
A review of lithium projects incentivised by recent high lithium carbonate and hydroxide (and spodumene concentrate) prices is also provided, including detailed profiles of Argentinian and Australian operations in development which account for the bulk of potential new suppliers.
The report then profiles the maximum potential supply relative to electric vehicle uptake scenarios over the next ten years, and also on an indicative basis out to 2040. The study presents a comprehensive overview of the critical success factors for lithium operations and projects.
Electric vehicles: Lithium market implications
Lithium is used in a variety of end-uses and in various forms, with automotive batteries making up just a fifth of demand last year. However, in future, electric vehicle batteries are forecast to dominate end-use and so lithium is likely to play an increasing role in energy storage solutions.
The report employs our analysis of powertrain evolution over many years, as well as recent in-depth battery studies, to understand the risks to lithium demand uptake in the future (using high-low scenarios). Demand for lithium by powertrain type and vehicle type is detailed.
An evaluation of battery factory capacity development is also provided, being the key link to lithium suppliers, end-users and price evolution. The future of lithium-ion batteries, including threats and opportunities, is also reviewed.
Additionally, an analysis of existing and potential end-uses is presented, including consumer electronics demand, glass/ceramics and other non-battery end-uses.
Our report concludes with a range of supply-demand outlooks and price forecasts to highlight where potential pinch points for the market might occur in future, and to help gauge the global resources of lithium.
Who should read this report
- End-users and fabricators in need of an independent supply, demand and pricing picture of the lithium market and its evolving applications and the fall-out from electric vehicle uptake.
- Producers and fabricators requiring an independent review of end-use evolution, including opportunities, threats and substitutes, as well as an understanding of price risks.
- Investors seeking an independent view on the outlook for the lithium market and prices.
The Lithium Market Report comprises 200 pages and will include a follow-up conference call to discuss the report with our team of analysts.
The report includes the following sections:
- Contextualisation of supply and production economics: brines and mineral sources
- New sources of supply
- Recycling potential
- Battery developments, manufacturers and plant expansions
- Battery costs and the evolution of lithium-ion chemistries
- Lithium demand by powertrain and vehicle class
- The long-term outlook for automobile electrification, including 'bull' and 'bear' scenarios
- Consumer electronics demand
- Non-battery end-use evolution
- Lithium market summary and price outlook