The Nickel Market
Nickel price drivers
An introduction to nickel
Nickel demand and end-uses
Nickel forms an essential component in the cathodes of Li-ion batteries, delivering high energy density and greater storage capacity at a lower cost, thereby delivering a longer range for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
Nickel has long been widely used in batteries, most commonly in nickel cadmium (NiCd) and in the longer-lasting nickel metal hydride (NiMH) rechargeable batteries, which came to the fore in the 1980s. Nickel usage in batteries is set to increase as it forms an essential component in the cathodes of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries utilised in BEVs.
Nickel has outstanding physical and chemical properties. It has a melting point of 1,453°C, relatively low thermal and electrical conductivities, high resistance to corrosion and oxidation, excellent strength and toughness at elevated temperatures, and is capable of being magnetised. It is attractive and durable as a pure metal, and alloys readily with many other metals.
These qualities make it essential in hundreds of thousands of products. Its main use is in alloying, particularly with chromium and other metals to produce stainless and heat-resisting steels. The six main uses are stainless steel, batteries, Cu-Ni alloys, nickel alloys, plating and nickel compounds.
Usage of nickel has increased over time and is correlated with economic development. Nickel is contained in nearly two-thirds of stainless steel produced. Strong world economic growth until 2007 supported the rising production of primary nickel metal. Over the past 10 years, global nickel output has increased by more than 65%, while that of China has surged by a factor of 13.
Nickel supply and resources
Nickel is a lustrous, silvery-white metal discovered in 1751 and the fifth most common element found on Earth. It occurs in nature principally as oxides, sulphides and silicates. Nickel ores are found in two types of orebody – sulphidic and lateritic. However, polymetallic manganese-rich nodules containing nickel found on the seabed are potentially a resource many times larger than those located on land, with a grade varying from 1.25-1.5% Ni.
Ores of nickel are mined in approximately 20 countries on all continents and are smelted or refined in around 25 countries. Global mined nickel production is derived from ~30% sulphide ores, with the remainder coming from a mix of limonite and saprolite ores.
Globally, the bulk of historical production has been derived from sulphide ores as these are easier to process through conventional mining, smelting and refining, compared to laterite ores. Sulphide ores are typically derived from volcanic or hydrothermal processes and usually include copper and/or cobalt, and sometimes other precious metals such as gold, platinum or palladium (generally grouped as PGMs).
Laterite ores mined from surface targeting limonite (oxide ore) and saprolite minerals (silicate ore) are mined along the Asia-Pacific Rim. Saprolite-type ore, characterised by high magnesia and silica content, is treated by a pyrometallurgy process, while limonite-type ore is subjected to a hydrometallurgical process. Laterites contain 70% of global nickel resources but produce only around 40% of world production.
Primary nickel is produced and used as ferronickel, and in nickel oxides and other chemicals, and as almost pure nickel metal. Globally, over 2 mt of new or primary nickel is produced and used annually. Nickel is also readily recycled in many of its applications, and large tonnages of secondary or ‘scrap’ nickel are used to supplement newly mined metal.
The output of primary nickel production is generally divided into two main product categories: class 1 and class 2. Nickel class 1 is a group of nickel products comprising electrolytic nickel, powders and briquettes, as well as carbonyl nickel. Approximately 40% of primary nickel production was class 1 in 2019.
Nickel class 2 comprises nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferronickel. These nickel products commonly have a lower nickel content and are used in stainless steel production, where producers take advantage of the iron content. China began producing NPI in 2005 in different forms and grades, and this has replaced traditional products such as nickel metal and stainless-steel scrap in the manufacture of stainless steel in China and Indonesia.
Nickel market balance
|Primary nickel supply|
|Rest of World|
|Total nickel supply||2,140,275||2,130530||2,270,685||2,270,960||2,430,760||2,440,390||2,829,855|
|Refined nickel supply|
|Class I (briquettes, cathodes, powder)|
|Other (primary NiSO4, utility nickel etc.)|
|Total refined nickel supply||2,315,180||2,443480||2,705,755|
|Nickel demand and recycling
|Lithium-ion battery nickel demand|
|Battery electric vehicles (BEV)|
|Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)|
|Full hybrid electric vehicles (FHEV)|
|Mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEV)|
|Full cell electric vehicles (FCEV)|
|Heavy-duty electric vehicles (HDEV)|
|Other battery (incl. non-lithium)|
|Total lithium-ion battery nickel demand||52,575||58,930||62,630||80,095||163,195||188,765||249,075|
|Other nickel demand|
|Other nickel demand*|
|Total other nickel demand||2,532,000||2,778,355||2,957,270||3,013,095||3,121,905||2,995,660||3,571,715|
|Gross nickel demand||2,584,575||2,837,285||3,019,895||3,093,190||3,285,095||3,184,430||3,820,790|
|Net nickel demand||1,752,565||1,964,390||2,087,595||2,144,805||2,308,025||2,336,025||2,840,385|
|Nickel market balance|
|Nickel market balance (with mined supply)||387,710||166,145||183,090||126,155||122,730||104,370||-10,530|
|Nickel market balance (with refined supply)||7,155||107,460||-134,635|
|Nickel price history|
|Nickel price (LME, $/tonne)||9,597||10,414||13,110||13,917||13,804||17,450|
|Nickel price (LME, $/lb)||4.35||4.72||5.95||6.31||6.26||7.92|
Nickel sulphate price (Shanghai incl. VAT, $/tonne)
| Mixed hydroxide product price
(MHP, 80% LME, $/tonne)
Source: SFA (Oxford). Updated July 2021. Note: *Other nickel demand includes plating and casting.
SFA's nickel market reports
SFA (Oxford) provides regular bespoke lithium-ion battery market intelligence reports on the nickel market as well as in-depth studies on nickel recycling, nickel trade flows and nickel pricing for nickel sulphate and MHP.
Quarterly Nickel Market Report and Prices Outlook
Released each quarter, SFA's nickel price risk-focused report details the factors impacting nickel sulphate demand, MHP and refined nickel for the next five years.
Long-term Nickel Market and Prices Outlook to 2040
Released annually, this ground-breaking, forward-looking report analyses the trends and influences on the nickel market and battery technologies out to 2040.
ESG assessment of the Nickel Market
SFA applies its ESG analytical rigour to the nickel market to better understand which players are leading and which are falling behind the decarbonisation roadmap.
Battery Metals Quarterly Report and Price Outlook
Our quarterly price risk-focused report details factors impacting the lithium, nickel and cobalt markets for the next five years and future battery technology trends.
Joining the dots between Lithium, Nickel and Cobalt
The SFA team completes a deep dive into the short- to long-term opportunities enabling the success of electric vehicle production across supported regions.
Lithium battery recycling value chain and ESG
SFA evaluates the long and complex life-cycle analysis of lithium-ion battery raw materials to improve the opportunities available for market stakeholders.
Australia Battery Materials Market Outlook Report
With Australia's abundance of battery raw materials, long-term challenges exist to develop its beneficiation strategy towards battery-grade precursor products.
Europe Battery Materials Market Outlook
European automakers need greater involvement in the battery supply chain to source raw materials and precursor components to improve supply security.
India Battery Materials Market Outlook
With high car ownership, dense cities, and the need to improve urban air quality, how can India adopt more electric vehicles and can city infrastructure cope?
China Battery Materials Market Outlook
China has the largest electric vehicle market in the world, so how can China co-exist with the rest of the world in this sector?
North America Battery Materials Market Outlook
Significant long-term opportunities exist along the value chain as more supportive legislation drives EV growth, with greater awareness of ESG pressures.
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