A trusted market view from a dedicated team of experts
SFA (Oxford) has supported numerous client listings by providing an independent view of the PGM markets to help secure capital from potential investors. Our market admission chapters (published by the client) detail the supply and demand of PGMs (platinum, palladium and rhodium in particular), and the impact of price and costs.
Supporting capital-raising initiatives
Our market chapters provide investors with a high-level overview of the PGM markets and cover the key influences driving the markets over the medium to long term. SFA has supported clients' fundraising efforts for projects in South Africa, Zimbabwe and North America and to motivate asset sales. The following sections are covered:
Trends in PGM demand
A detailed analysis of demand trends and an assessment of likely global demand over the short, medium and longer term are presented, covering the major PGM end-use sectors (autocatalysis, jewellery, glass, nitric acid, medical/dental) and the investment sector, including ETFs, TOCOM and NYMEX.
Special reference is made to the current growing impact of hybrid cars and the introduction of autocatalysis in the heavy-vehicle sector. The environmental legislation affecting global emissions standards, loadings and the substitutability of platinum and palladium in this end-use sector are considered.
Observations are also made on the jewellery sector and developments in Chinese and Japanese demand.
Trends in PGM supply
SFA's supply analysis addresses historical and current mine output and primary production trends for PGMs, including recent expansions, other projects coming on-stream and projects shelved or postponed.
Consideration is given to the grade and geology of PGMs worldwide and metallurgical developments.
Our analysis also investigates the long-term supply assumptions for both UG2 and Merensky Reef mine production, along with industry cost structure and appropriate cost curves. PGMs produced as by-products of base metal production and PGM recycling estimates are also considered.
Market and medium-term PGM prices
We bring together detailed extrapolations of medium-term supply and demand fundamentals, to present market balances for platinum, palladium and rhodium. An equilibrium pricing model is used to determine a price forecast based on equating projected supply and demand for future years.
It is clear that higher prices can induce higher production at existing mines and allow new projects to be commissioned, whereas lower prices can lead to shaft and/or mine closures.
Combining our analysis of the industry cost curve (mine closure inducement pricing) with NPV modelling of new junior projects (project incentive pricing) provides the basis for bringing equilibrium to supply-demand fundamentals.
Project peer group benchmarking
A stand-alone report to complement a bankable feasibility study that benchmarks a project against PGM peers and projects
This was a stand-alone report that provided a detailed examination of the global PGM industry, with an analysis of the supply and demand trends of PGMs. The report gave an independent, economically derived, medium- to long-term view on metal prices: platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium and ruthenium. It included a comparison of the project with those of industry peers, including greenfield/brownfield projects.
A bankable feasibility study for a junior PGM producer
Led to an asset sale
Through the benchmarking of the cost and profit dynamics of a South African PGM junior project against those of both its local peers and global competitors, and provision of an independent view on the metal price dynamics of platinum-group markets, SFA (Oxford) successfully assisted the company and its banking partners through the final stages of a project feasibility study.
Initial public offering chrome chapter
Initial public offering of a major chrome producer in South Africa
SFA (Oxford) provided an independent chapter of concise market commentary on the global chrome industry, detailing supply and demand trends, trading conditions and pricing of the metal.
Other PGM consulting solutions
Explore other services our clients use regularly.
SFA has significant experience in reviewing mine business plans, identifying production risks and reviewing costs down to a half-level basis.
Working with clients and third parties, SFA has a long track record of providing technical due diligence and financial modelling support to help secure funding.
Clients have used SFA to provide the analytical link with banks and financial institutions to support PGM investment decision-making and provide market support.
Our PGM peer-group benchmarking is unrivalled, providing you with a detailed understanding of which assets are outperforming and which are most at risk.
SFA realises cost synergies for PGM clients across company operations to help raise margins and improve production efficiency benchmarks.
With extensive experience covering the PGM markets and industry fundamentals, SFA can provide you with our latest market outlook and the window of scenarios.
The SFA team has completed many labour workforce projects, analysing demographic trends, forecasting future labour requirements across mining operations.
SFA is a trusted advisor to Board members and senior management of significant stakeholders and provides regular assistance to strategy and planning efforts.
SFA can provide accurate short-, medium- and long-term PGM price forecasts to support your business plans and contract negotiations.
SFA provides regular data flows of mine supply and metallurgical pipelines, basket prices, mine economics, and PGM demand to assist strategic decision-making.
SFA has extensive experience in assessing clients' advanced mineral processing offtake options and evaluating indicative commercial terms.
Clients approach SFA to run their own supply and macro modelling demand inputs to see the impact this has on the medium- to long-term PGM market balances.
SFA supports its clients on global roadshows to assist on capital raisings and converse with fund managers, institutional investors and family wealth officers.
The SFA team is constantly providing rich insights for its clients on structural events moving the PGM markets, particularly when the situation continues to change.
SFA works closely with value chain players to understand how materially significant ESG issues can be integrated into their wider company strategy.
SFA's benchmarking of PGM producers on material ESG factors generates high-resolution insights for sustainability-conscious investors.
SFA's analysis of environmental footprints from recycled material in terms of greenhouse gases, waste generation and processing is helping secure new investments.
For many years, SFA's extensive expertise in analysing the changing dynamics of global economies, financial markets and precious metals has enabled us to deliver bespoke research to enhance your next strategy.
SFA delivers detailed insights into the effects of new automotive technologies on PGM demand for light-duty, heavy-duty, off-road and fuel cell vehicles to meet government emission targets.
SFA has advised mobility companies with their strategies, providing global or local industry context, benchmarking competitors, creating industry scenarios and identifying new opportunities.
SFA has explored the purchasing dynamics between market participants, the complexity of the associated price web factors for platinum, palladium and rhodium, providing definitive answers to commercial questions.
SFA is constantly monitoring the evolution of emerging technologies and threats to new metal substitution. Let us cut through the noise, and highlight the short to long-term price risk impacts for your business.
SFA is equipped to provide detailed regional insights of the major players, market shares, demand volumes, and market value for automotive, chemical and petrochemical catalysts, and smaller industrial markets.
SFA's discreet work with recyclers gives us unique market insights, for the major regions of the USA, Europe, China and Japan. We also closely monitor jewellery recycling, electronic scrap and spent catalysts.
SFA has mapped jewellery pipelines, examined costs and margins, quantified future demand levels, and analysed the competitor landscape of fabricators, wholesalers, and retailers for future investment decision-making.
SFA analyses the physical movements of PGMs for demand-side and supply-side participants, how futures contracts are priced and traded, and quantifies above-ground PGM stocks from key sectors.
SFA can provide you with the most insightful 360-degree research covering the secret closed-loop market sectors by quantifying installed capacities, system losses and top-up requirements by company and sector.
SFA has significant experience mapping regional and localised end-use markets for PGMs to assist clients in discovering new trading opportunities and client targets by volume and sector.