Price forecasting & incentive pricing
Platinum Group Metals
Price accuracy from a dedicated team of experts
SFA (Oxford) price forecasts are genuinely independent and highly accurate. We can provide short-, medium- and long-term PGM price forecasts to support your business plans and contract negotiations, backed by our extensive supply and demand databases. Our price insights are led by Dr Ralph Grimble, with mathematical protocol (Monte Carlo) simulations and iterative procedures rigorously followed, e.g. mine closure inducement and project incentive pricing, using the same core data providers.
Despite all the variables, SFA's forecasts are within 10%
Using our methodology, the average price forecast error is less than 10% compared to over 15% for consensus.
Global analysts' consensus
Investment banking forecasts are consistently over-bullish. Agenda driven... perhaps not truly independent?
Case studies
Asset divestment
An independent appraisal of market conditions and the commercial outlook for one of South Africa’s major PGM producers
The team compiled credible, long-range PGM pricing inputs for a mine's divestment case. The report articulated potential future outcomes for platinum group metals demand and primary and secondary supplies and economics, as well as the macroeconomic environment impacting on long-term metal prices.
A long-term sensitivity analysis of future automotive technology and its impact on the PGM market out to 2040 — commissioned by a client
Where and when the expansions and contractions in demand will take place for each metal
An analysis was carried out of the influence of future powertrains on platinum, palladium and rhodium demand out to 2040.
The impact of electric vehicles on future platinum and palladium demand — commissioned by a major conglomerate
Long-term market impact analysis out to 2040
The project also took account of country-by-country energy supplies, government policies and legislation, cities, and demographic considerations. In summary, using a range of electric vehicle sales growth scenarios to articulate the potential loss of PGM demand and market implications to the client.
Ask us for our latest PGM price forecasts and scenarios
Contact one of our team for more details.
Henk de Hoop
Chief Executive Officer
Beresford Clarke
Managing Director: Technical & Research
Jamie Underwood
Principal Consultant
Other PGM consulting solutions
Explore other services our clients use regularly.
Augmented mine business planning and risk analysis
SFA has significant experience in reviewing mine business plans, identifying production risks and reviewing costs down to a half-level basis.
Due diligence studies and PGM commercial advisory
Working with clients and third parties, SFA has a long track record of providing technical due diligence and financial modelling support to help secure funding.
PGM mergers, acquisitions, and corporate defence
Clients have used SFA to provide the analytical link with banks and financial institutions to support PGM investment decision-making and provide market support.
IPO market chapters and PGM feasibility studies
SFA has supported numerous client listings by providing an independent view of the PGM markets to help secure capital from potential investors.
Peer-group benchmarking and margin analysis
Our PGM peer-group benchmarking is unrivalled, providing you with a detailed understanding of which assets are outperforming and which are most at risk.
Mine optimisation and cost benchmarking
SFA realises cost synergies for PGM clients across company operations to help raise margins and improve production efficiency benchmarks.
Covid-19 PGM market analysis and scenarios
With extensive experience covering the PGM markets and industry fundamentals, SFA can provide you with our latest market outlook and the window of scenarios.
Human capital and organisational planning
The SFA team has completed many labour workforce projects, analysing demographic trends, forecasting future labour requirements across mining operations.
PGM strategy, planning and Board support
SFA is a trusted advisor to Board members and senior management of significant stakeholders and provides regular assistance to strategy and planning efforts.
PGM markets and supply risk dashboards
SFA provides regular data flows of mine supply and metallurgical pipelines, basket prices, mine economics, and PGM demand to assist strategic decision-making.
Metallurgical processing and commercial options
SFA has extensive experience in assessing clients' advanced mineral processing offtake options and evaluating indicative commercial terms.
'Black-box' PGM and macro scenario modelling
Clients approach SFA to run their own supply and macro modelling demand inputs to see the impact this has on the medium- to long-term PGM market balances.
PGM investor Board packs and roadshows
SFA supports its clients on global roadshows to assist on capital raisings and converse with fund managers, institutional investors and family wealth officers.
Black swan events and PGM market impacts
The SFA team is constantly providing rich insights for its clients on structural events moving the PGM markets, particularly when the situation continues to change.
Corporate ESG strategy and PGM stewardship
SFA works closely with value chain players to understand how materially significant ESG issues can be integrated into their wider company strategy.
Peer-group ESG benchmarking for PGMs
SFA's benchmarking of PGM producers on material ESG factors generates high-resolution insights for sustainability-conscious investors.
Cradle-to-grave ESG recycling studies
SFA's analysis of environmental footprints from recycled material in terms of greenhouse gases, waste generation and processing is helping secure new investments.
Macroeconomics and precious metals
For many years, SFA's extensive expertise in analysing the changing dynamics of global economies, financial markets and precious metals has enabled us to deliver bespoke research to enhance your next strategy.
Automotive powertrains and PGM demand
SFA delivers detailed insights into the effects of new automotive technologies on PGM demand for light-duty, heavy-duty, off-road and fuel cell vehicles to meet government emission targets.
The future of cities and mobility solutions
SFA has advised mobility companies with their strategies, providing global or local industry context, benchmarking competitors, creating industry scenarios and identifying new opportunities.
PGM purchasing and new customer targets
SFA has explored the purchasing dynamics between market participants, the complexity of the associated price web factors for platinum, palladium and rhodium, providing definitive answers to commercial questions.
Emerging technologies – opportunities and threats
SFA is constantly monitoring the evolution of emerging technologies and threats to new metal substitution. Let us cut through the noise, and highlight the short to long-term price risk impacts for your business.
PGM catalyst and chemicals market intelligence
SFA is equipped to provide detailed regional insights of the major players, market shares, demand volumes, and market value for automotive, chemical and petrochemical catalysts, and smaller industrial markets.
Long-term PGM recycling value chain assessments
SFA's discreet work with recyclers gives us unique market insights, for the major regions of the USA, Europe, China and Japan. We also closely monitor jewellery recycling, electronic scrap and spent catalysts.
Jewellery pipeline mapping and econometrics
SFA has mapped jewellery pipelines, examined costs and margins, quantified future demand levels, and analysed the competitor landscape of fabricators, wholesalers, and retailers for future investment decision-making.
PGM trade flows and stock reconciliation
SFA analyses the physical movements of PGMs for demand-side and supply-side participants, how futures contracts are priced and traded, and quantifies above-ground PGM stocks from key sectors.
Closed and open-loop PGM market evaluation
SFA can provide you with the most insightful 360-degree research covering the secret closed-loop market sectors by quantifying installed capacities, system losses and top-up requirements by company and sector.
Formulating regional trading desk strategies
SFA has significant experience mapping regional and localised end-use markets for PGMs to assist clients in discovering new trading opportunities and client targets by volume and sector.
How can we help you?
SFA (Oxford) provides bespoke, independent intelligence on the strategic metal markets, specifically tailored to your needs. To find out more about what we can offer you, please contact us.