Peer group depletion study

Development of a compelling rationale for the investment community and stimulation for a re-rating in a PGM producer's share price based on its costs of production compared with those of the industry

The SFA (Oxford) team carried out a comparative analysis that provided a stark contrast of peer-group depletion rates both physically (ore reserve attrition) and economically (price-induced attrition). This depletion study clearly highlighted the quality of a producer’s assets (including exceptional optionality in production and quality of its reserves) that gives it an edge against acute industry depletion.

Supply security for end-users

An all-inclusive extrapolation of Southern African PGM production

SFA (Oxford) carried out an assessment of likely scenarios of the size, shape and structure of the Southern African platinum group metals mining industry to 2040 so as to aid a client to evaluate its metal supply requirements, now and in the future.

Synergies associated with consolidation

Exploration of strategic options for industry consolidation

SFA (Oxford)’s constant monitoring of the industry dynamics, and consequent vigilance of many in the global PGM peer group, has led to a unique track record of modelling and assessing strategic opportunities. In this assignment, SFA (Oxford) identified, evaluated and quantified potential synergies associated with a combination of industry consolidation. We developed business cases for consolidation from the perspectives of each party and prioritised target companies.

Developing the platinum investment market

Enhancing investors' understanding of the fundamentals driving the platinum market

The team provided independent research and analysis to an organisation formed by six leading platinum producers to develop the market for platinum investment demand. SFA (Oxford)'s data and analysis helped to ensure greater transparency of the global platinum market and the delivery of regular data to investors.

Corporate expansion 

An assessment of opportunities to increase a company's PGM output 

SFA (Oxford) undertook an investigation of potential business growth opportunities to meet a client's aggressive PGM production target.

Investment case

Independent assessment of a PGM project

SFA (Oxford) provided an up-to-date, high-level case for investment in a project against other global projects and operations, to be made available to a potential joint venture partner.

Investment appraisal

Identification and quantification of South Africa’s low-grade PGM waste products from concentrators, smelters and refineries

The SFA (Oxford) team compiled a list of South Africa’s PGM producers and respective concentrators, smelters and refineries, calculating the amount of PGMs produced on an annual basis for each metallurgical process, and estimating the production of secondary materials from each process and defining the typical chemical assay of each secondary material.

Insight for strategic planning

PGM business intelligence for strategic planning purposes

SFA (Oxford) provided an estimation of PGM primary and secondary mine concentrate (base metal etc.) volumes by region, along with an explanation of refining treatment flows (player integration versus reliance on third-party toll treatment). This included estimates of the internal and, where applicable, external costs of producing concentrate.

The characterisation of primary and secondary PGM smelting and refining by region was analysed, including the main players, their capacities, their level of integration in the PGM chain, and, where possible, their utilisation rates and margins.

The spent autocatalyst collection market and associated infrastructure by region were researched and analysed, including the main players, collection efficiency rates by region and the typical business models employed.

PGM market study on the size and dynamics of the Indian PGM market

Analysing capacities, industrial sectors, material flows, and end-uses

SFA (Oxford)’s Indian PGM market study included market intelligence on PGM demand split by sectors, local and imported sources of supply for end users, identification of major players and their services as well as PGM recycling developments and opportunities in India.

Precious metal demand trends in Southeast Asia

Analysing capacities, industrial sectors, material flows, and end-uses

An investigation was made into current and future trends and influences acting on industrial PGMs and their investment vehicles in the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Myanmar and Australia.

Industrial sectors covered included glass, petroleum, electronics, chemical and medical. The investment sector took account of exchange-traded funds. A 'black book' of customers and suppliers was created, and PGM volumes required for each industry and customers were derived.

China PGM market study

Analysing capacities, industrial sectors, material flows, and end-uses

Over the years SFA (Oxford) has greatly expanded its analysis of the Chinese PGM marketplace. This study provides a detailed understanding of the precious metals trading environment, regulations, automotive catalyst manufacturing segment and its players, market size and global context, as well as recycling market volumes and forecasts.

USA PGM market study

Analysing capacities, industrial sectors, material flows, and end-uses to identify new client opportunities

SFA (Oxford) provided key PGM market data and useable information including procurement volumes and methods by sector and segment, new appliances of PGMs, forecast consumption volumes, PGM recycling loops, as well as a summary of the key players in recycling.

Strategic list of target customers

Ranking targets in the chemical sector for a client

Using our in-depth knowledge and understanding of PGM demand and metal flows to the chemical sector (silicones, nitric acid, paraxylene and PDH), SFA (Oxford) created a target list of potential customers for a client.

Precious metals chemicals industry 

Evaluating players, metal use, and business opportunities for a client

SFA (Oxford) undertook a detailed strategic intelligence report on the precious metals chemicals markets, including PGM demand volumes and market value by segment and region, as well as the competitive landscape.

Ruthenium value chain

The European and US ruthenium catalyst markets: Supply, sale and application

SFA (Oxford) analysed the European and US ruthenium catalyst markets (including recycling), considering their fundamentals, trade flows, and major players/buyers, and supplying actual pricing information for ruthenium to better frame the market’s commercial/trading environment through, for example, spot pricing and contracts.

Competitor purchasing intelligence

PGM use in automotive market and best-fit scenarios for a client

SFA (Oxford) helped the client better understand PGM use in the automotive market, then identified potential purchasing strategy developments to leverage the clients buying powers, reduce risk and guarantee supply.

Competition for PGM supply — commissioned by an electrolyser and fuel cell production company

Strategic metals assessment

SFA (Oxford) was commissioned to examine the future demand requirements for platinum and iridium, and the availability of supply to support the growing hydrogen economy.

A long-term sensitivity analysis of future automotive technology and its impact on the PGM market out to 2040 — commissioned by a client

Where and when the expansions and contractions in demand will take place for each metal

An analysis was carried out of the influence of future powertrains on platinum, palladium and rhodium demand out to 2040.

Security of supply — commissioned by a car manufacturer

Security of PGM supply against new automotive technologies and product cycles

The review considered a car company’s future drive towards new automotive technologies where sourcing the right platinum group metals mix to meet the new challenges arising from the need for more environmentally friendly vehicles is a key factor. 

Automotive catalyst end-uses — commissioned by a major mining corporation

Autocatalyst demand study

The team at SFA (Oxford) carried out an overview of automotive catalyst end-uses, including PGM requirements, industry trends, emissions legislation and metal substitution. We also produced historical autocatalyst PGM offtake data and forecast demand.

The impact of electric vehicles on future platinum and palladium demand — commissioned by a major conglomerate

Long-term market impact analysis out to 2040

The project also took account of country-by-country energy supplies, government policies and legislation, cities, and demographic considerations. In summary, using a range of electric vehicle sales growth scenarios to articulate the potential loss of PGM demand and market implications to the client.

Predictive jewellery modelling — commissioned by a client

A PGM jewellery demand study of jewellery elasticity to metal prices

SFA (Oxford) developed a robust, predictive model of platinum and palladium jewellery demand and price elasticities, helping to inform the company’s marketing activity with detailed forecasts of platinum and palladium demand and their sensitivities.

A year-long study on the Chinese jewellery market

A full regional appraisal of platinum jewellery, including the value chain, players, metal movements, and influences on demand

A multi-faceted econometric model was developed to quantify platinum jewellery demand evolution now and in the future. The study involved on the ground interviews with jewellery industry players (fabricators, wholesalers and retailers). Demographic influences were also accounted for to ultimately plot platinum demand scenarios for tomorrow.

Jewellery marketing investment appraisal

Global investment appraisal

The SFA (Oxford) team provided insight on metal price demand elasticity, so as to illustrate the dynamics that impact manufacturers and retailers’ decisions regarding their platinum business.

The report highlighted the margins that apply in the jewellery pipeline from mine to the customer (retailer) to identify levels of marketing investment that can be achieved (net profit, net profit margin, and gross profit margin).

The pipeline was mapped by market, outlining the flow of platinum from importers and refiners through to consumers.

PGM customers in the hydrogen economy — commissioned by a client

New customer targets

SFA (Oxford) identified and evaluated key PGM customers in the hydrogen economy, a good long-term hedge for PGMs as autocatalyst use declines, and potentially secure demand for iridium and ruthenium.

Development of mineral rights portfolios

Global investment appraisal

Comprehensive strategic appraisals of global exploration projects have been completed by SFA (Oxford) on behalf of an investor.

Enhanced Investment Memorandum

Linking the use of PGMs in strategic applications with favourable investment returns

SFA (Oxford) assisted in the production of an Investment Memorandum (IM) for a client, providing clear insight into the benefits of PGM, how the use of PGM in innovative new technologies is rising.

Contextualising prospects for the hydrogen economy — for a Family Wealth Office

Hydrogen market assessment

Market evaluation including assessing how technology shifts, legislative changes, and environmental issues will impact markets, and evaluation of niche applications in new end-uses and the long-term sustainability of these applications.

Economic appraisal

In-depth analysis of spent autocatalyst recycling and value chain

SFA (Oxford) provided an independent view of the PGM value chain for spent autocatalyst recycling, highlighting the indicative cost and value addition at each stage (removal, collection, pre-processing, smelting, and refining).

The recycling sector

A guide for the new entrant

The SFA (Oxford) team completed an overview and evaluation of opportunities within the PGM recovery/recycling sector, defining the barriers to entry confronting a newcomer to the sector, identifying the main players in the value chain, and forecasting regional collection rates and volumes of spent autocatalysts, as well as appraising other market sources of secondary PGMs.

Investment/disinvestment

Strategic options review for a major PGM recycler

SFA (Oxford) assisted in the derivation of a high-level, practicable, and viable scaling-up of business strategy (or disinvestment case). Detailed PGM market intelligence was provided, covering primary and secondary supply and demand. The review contextualised assets/ operations against those of local peers and global competitors, and offered an independent view on the metal price dynamics of platinum-group markets, so as to determine a robust window of economic opportunity for the company’s PGM business.