Assessing the impact and landscape of future PGM projects
SFA (Oxford) can provide up-to-date analysis on global proven, probable and possible PGM projects. Our DCF scenario modelling analyses the attractiveness of these PGM projects based on incentivised platinum, palladium and rhodium pricing, which can motivate new supply based on future platinum, palladium and rhodium supply and demand fundamentals to 2040, following exploration, feasibility, brownfield, greenfield, replacement depletion assessments of industry reserves and resources. Where possible, we include operating and CAPEX extrapolations, company strategy, the availability of downstream projecting, the ability to meet legislative requirements, other external factors and overall project feasibility. We rank the peer group of projects, using a set of criteria, scoring each project to compare them and ascertain the most likely timeline for project execution and achievement of steady-state production. The evaluation takes account of macro and regional economic factors, reasoned metal price forecasts and the evolution of powertrains. We examine the critical project impacting factors and the reasons for any outperformance or underperformance within the global peer group of producers.
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