The Palladium Market
Palladium price drivers
An introduction to palladium
Palladium is primarily used as a catalyst in the automotive sector, mainly in gasoline-powered on-road vehicles, and has displaced platinum in some parts of on-road diesel engine autocatalysts. The second main use of palladium is in electrical components, specifically in multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs), as conductive pastes and in electrical plating.
From its humble beginnings in the 1970s and 1980s, the palladium market has grown to over 10 million ounces, mainly as a result of it being a substitute for platinum in autocatalysts for gasoline cars. Russian state stocks have dried up, whilst underlying global primary supply has hardly changed and palladium is now trading at a premium to platinum. However, with palladium overwhelmingly reliant on autocatalysts, accounting for 79% of demand, could this prove to be a 'boom or bust' situation?
Palladium price news and insights
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The autocatalyst and it's potted history
10 May 2024 | Daniel Croft
As autocatalyst recycling volumes have suffered a decline, Daniel Croft examines the current state-of-play of autocatalyst recycling, as part of SFA's annual publication The Platinum Standard.
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SFA's expert view on the palladium price spike
18 December 2023 | Dr Ralph Grimble
The palladium price surged last week due to a convergence of positive factors. The Fed acknowledged the peak in US inflation during its press conference, leading to a more dovish outlook for interest rates and a weaker US dollar, supporting commodity prices.
Stalling BEV market share and political shifts put the EU’s ICE vehicle ban at risk
17 June 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Platinum catches a tailwind from stronger rand
21 May 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Solar silver demand growth to moderate this year but still hit a new record
15 April 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Palladium demand supported for longer after new US emissions law changes
25 March 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Palladium price in context, 1980 to 2023
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Palladium market balance
koz | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | |
Primary palladium supply | |||||||||
Regional | |||||||||
South Africa | 2375 | 2530 | 2500 | 2555 | 1845 | 2755 | 2240 | 2390 | |
Russia | 2555 | 2740 | 2670 | 2870 | 2810 | 2585 | 2790 | 2405 | |
Zimbabwe | 395 | 395 | 380 | 385 | 405 | 395 | 420 | 440 | |
North America | 1065 | 985 | 1035 | 975 | 950 | 840 | 740 | 770 | |
Other | 420 | 415 | 395 | 395 | 385 | 265 | 270 | 270 | |
Total | 6810 | 7065 | 6975 | 7180 | 6395 | 6845 | 6460 | 6275 | |
Palladium demand and recycling |
|||||||||
Palladium autocatalyst demand | |||||||||
Gross Pd autocatalyst demand | 7925 | 8140 | 8300 | 8445 | 7435 | 7595 | 7730 | 7685 | |
Pd autocatalyst recycling | 1710 | 1920 | 2035 | 2175 | 2010 | 2380 | 2095 | 2205 | |
Net Pd autocatalyst demand | 6210 | 6220 | 6265 | 6270 | 5430 | 5220 | 5635 | 5480 | |
Palladium jewellery demand | |||||||||
Gross Pd jewellery demand | 240 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 200 | 215 | 225 | 235 | |
Pd jewellery recycling | 80 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | |
Net Pd jewellery demand | 165 | 155 | 155 | 155 | 145 | 155 | 160 | 165 | |
Industrial palladium demand | 1900 | 1840 | 1840 | 1715 | 1640 | 1655 | 1550 | 1540 | |
Other palladium recycling | 390 | 380 | 370 | 365 | 335 | 415 | 365 | 350 | |
Gross palladium demand | 10,065 | 10,195 | 10,355 | 10,375 | 9,280 | 9,470 | 9,505 | 9,460 | |
Palladium recycling | 2180 | 2360 | 2465 | 2600 | 2395 | 2855 | 2525 | 2625 | |
Net palladium demand | 7890 | 7835 | 7890 | 7780 | 6880 | 6615 | 6980 | 6835 | |
Palladium market balance | |||||||||
Palladium balance (before ETFs) | -1,080 | -775 | -910 | -600 | -485 | 235 | -520 | -565 | |
Palladium ETFs (stock allocation) | -640 | -375 | -560 | -90 | -115 | 50 | -90 | ||
Palladium balance after ETFs | -440 | -400 | -350 | -515 | -370 | 185 | -430 | -565 | |
Palladium price history | |||||||||
Palladium price (USD/oz) |
691 | 613 | 870 | 1,030 | 1,538 | 2,194 | 2,108 | ||
Palladium price (GBP/oz) | 452 | 457 | 674 | 773 | 1,205 | 1,707 | 1,707 | ||
Palladium price (EUR/oz) | 622 | 555 | 768 | 874 | 1,375 | 1,922 | 2,003 | ||
Palladium price (CNY/oz) | 4,333 | 4,082 | 5,861 | 6,827 | 10,641 | 15,117 | 14,157 | ||
Palladium price (ZAR/oz) | 8,741 | 8,956 | 11,580 | 13,673 | 22,247 | 35,940 | 34,391 | ||
Palladium price (JPY/oz) | 83,503 | 66,501 | 97,485 | 113,853 | 167,631 | 234,191 | 276,105 | ||
Source: SFA (Oxford). Updated May 2023.
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Linked palladium market reports
SFA (Oxford) provides regular bespoke market intelligence reports on palladium as well as in-depth studies on recycling, metal flows and price setting.
Meet the PGM team
Trusted advice from a dedicated team of experts.
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Henk de Hoop
Chief Executive Officer
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Beresford Clarke
Managing Director: Technical & Research
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Dr Ralph Grimble
Operations Director
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Lee Hockey
Precious Metals Expert
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Dr Jenny Watts
Head of Clean Energy & Sustainability
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Jamie Underwood
Principal Consultant
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Senior Market Analyst: Battery Materials and Technologies
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Adele Rouleau
ESG and Critical Minerals Lead
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Oksan Atilan
Consulting Automotive Analyst
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Alex Biddle
Senior Mining Analyst
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Dr Sandeep Kaler
Market Strategy Analyst
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Alexandre Toufic Zard
Analyst
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Daniel Croft
Commodity Analyst
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David Mobbs
Head of Marketing
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Joel Lacey
Sales and Marketing Specialist
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