Forecasting the evolving electric vehicle metal mix
Over two decades, SFA (Oxford) has developed an unrivalled model of metal demand in the automotive sector, using automakers’ production forecasts, powertrain evolution in response to legislation, the latest emissions standards and an in-depth understanding of electric vehicle technologies. Covering all classes of electric vehicles - light-duty and heavy-duty – and all regions, our view is trusted by automakers and precursor fabricators, as well as metal producers, recyclers and investors.
A watching brief on all automotive developments
SFA provides analysis of global emissions standards and trends affecting gasoline- and diesel-powered internal combustion engines and the long term electrification of transport, including hybrids, battery electric vehicles and fuel cell powertrains.
Regional and local mandates to avert global warming and improve urban air quality are driving the transition to cleaner vehicles, over a long period and at different rates in different countries.
SFA’s analysis helps to track the ongoing demand for lithium, nickel and cobalt in batteries for electrification, and considering the future long term in fuel cell vehicles.
Whilst the electric vehicles market is growing in size, we also consider the trends affecting the use of lithium, nickel and cobalt in other end-use developments.
A long-term sensitivity analysis of future automotive technology and its impact on the PGM market out to 2040 — commissioned by a major metal trading company
Where and when the expansions and contractions in demand will take place for each metal
An analysis was carried out of the influence of future powertrains, with a breakdown of the projected powertrain shares (across gasoline, diesel, battery-electric, fuel cell electric, and hybrid vehicles) and production by region out to 2040. In addition, the associated long-term demand outlook out to 2040 for platinum, palladium, and rhodium was assessed.
Technological and legislative developments — commissioned by a major PGM producer
Industry watching brief
SFA (Oxford) undertook a watching brief on all technological and legislative developments affecting PGM demand in autocatalyst end-uses.
Security of supply — commissioned by a major car manufacturer
Security of PGM supply against new automotive technologies and product cycles
The review considered a car company’s future drive towards new automotive technologies where sourcing the right materials to meet the new challenges arising from the need for more environmentally friendly vehicles is a key factor. Catalysis will invariably require greater levels of palladium so as to maximise performance in this new wave of vehicles and, as such, supply will need to be assured in order to sustain the future of this emerging market.
Automotive catalyst end-uses — commissioned by a major mining corporation
Autocatalyst demand study
The team at SFA (Oxford) carried out an overview of automotive catalyst end-uses, including PGM requirements, industry trends, emissions legislation and inter-related metal substitution. We also produced historical autocatalyst PGM offtake data and forecast demand.
The impact of electric vehicles on future platinum and palladium demand — commissioned by a major conglomerate
Long-term market impact analysis out to 2040
An evaluation of potential powertrain technology uptake trends out to 2040 including combustion engine evolution, hybrids, electric drive and fuel cells. The project also took account of country-by-country energy supplies, government policies and legislation, cities, and demographic considerations. In summary, using a range of electric vehicle sales growth scenarios to articulate the potential loss of PGM demand to the client.
Strategic metals assessment to support tomorrow’s hydrogen economy — commissioned by a consortium of technological leaders
Hydrogen market assessment
SFA (Oxford) provided a detailed report and presentation to a consortium of fuel cell technology companies, major automakers, gas companies, technology companies, and third-party manufacturers on the long-term viability of platinum and iridium supplies to support a budding hydrogen economy.
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Other consulting solutions
Explore other services our clients use regularly.
The pressure for renewable energy generation will require intermittent chemical energy storage solutions to support international climate change objectives.
With charging infrastructure lagging behind EV sales, SFA is on hand to help determine which localised markets will support battery electric vehicles.
The rapid rise in electric vehicles means the recycling market needs to prepare for processing the growth in the supply of nickel, lithium and cobalt.
SFA analyses the emergence of the new and competing cathode, anode and electrolyte technologies, market adoption and the fall-out this has on battery materials.
SFA evaluates the strategic opportunities of other strategic battery materials such as manganese, vanadium, copper, graphite, silica, and rare earth elements.
Working with clients and third parties, SFA has a long track record of providing battery metals technical due diligence and financial modelling support.
Clients have used SFA to provide the analytical link with banks and financial institutions to support investment decision making and provide robust market support.
SFA has supported numerous client listings by providing an independent view of the lithium, nickel and cobalt markets to help secure capital from potential investors.
SFA's battery metals benchmarking is unrivalled, providing you with a detailed understanding of which assets are outperforming and those most at risk.
SFA is a trusted advisor to boardrooms and senior management to major stakeholders and provides regular assistance to battery metals strategy and planning.
SFA provides accurate short- to long-term battery metal price forecasts to support your business plans and contract negotiations, backed by our extensive research.
SFA has extensive experience assessing clients battery metal processing facilities and offtake options and supply chain offtake due diligence.
SFA regularly supports clients on roadshows to assist on capital raisings and converse with fund managers, institutional investors and family wealth offices.
The SFA team is constantly providing rich insights for its clients on structural events moving the battery metals markets and battery technology substitution.
SFA works closely with value chain players to understand how materially significant ESG issues can be integrated into their wider company strategy.
SFA's benchmarking of battery metal producers on material ESG factors generates high-resolution insights for sustainability-conscious investors.
SFA evaluates the long and complex life cycle analysis of battery metals and materials to improve the recycling opportunities available for market stakeholders.
SFA delivers detailed insights into market risks of automotive technologies for light-duty, heavy-duty, off-road and fuel cell vehicles to meet emission targets.