Price forecasting & incentive pricing
Battery Raw Materials
Price risk mitigation for battery metals
As the world moves towards a cleaner and greener future, electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming increasingly popular. The demand for battery metals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt is increasing, with supply and price volatility becoming critical concerns for all players in the value chain. At SFA (Oxford), we provide tailored and reliable short- to long-term price forecasts for these essential materials. Our forecasts are supported by extensive supply and demand databases and can provide valuable insights into market trends, pricing dynamics, and potential price movements. This information can help to inform sales and procurement strategies, minimise risks and maximise profits across the battery metals supply chain.
Price forecasting for producers
Are you a raw material producer looking to optimise your operations and secure funding for new projects? SFA can provide you with the accurate short- to long-term price forecasts you need to make informed decisions. By using our extensive supply and demand databases, you can gain a clear understanding of future market conditions and adjust your production planning and financing decisions accordingly.
Our price forecasting can help you negotiate better contracts with precursor and battery manufacturers. By having access to reliable pricing information, you can confidently negotiate terms and conditions that are more favourable for your business, increasing your competitiveness in the market. With SFA as your partner, you can optimise your operations and maximise profits while minimising risks.
Price risk management for precursor manufacturers
Partnering with SFA (Oxford) for tailored price forecasting services can help your treasury and procurement teams make informed decisions about precursor manufacturing in the growing battery metals market. Our accurate short- to long-term price forecasts for essential battery metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt can help you optimise your operations and secure funding for new projects. By partnering with us, you can gain a competitive edge in the precursor manufacturing market and negotiate better contracts with raw material producers, increasing your profitability and sustainability. Contact us today to learn more about how we can help your treasury and procurement teams with our forecasting services.
Optimising price risk for battery manufacturers
SFA's accurate short- to long-term price forecasts for crucial battery metals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt can help battery manufacturers make informed procurement decisions, allowing you to purchase raw materials at the right time and at the best price, thereby minimising costs and increasing competitiveness in the dynamic battery metals market. By partnering with SFA, you can leverage our forecasting services to negotiate better contracts with raw material producers and precursor manufacturers, ensuring your supply chain is secure, and your operations are optimised for profitability.
Price risk management for automakers to support EV uptake
For procurement and treasury departments, managing price risk is a key consideration when it comes to securing the necessary battery metals for EV production. SFA's price forecasting services can provide valuable insights into commodity purchasing risk, enabling these departments to make informed procurement decisions and minimise costs. By utilising our accurate price forecasts, procurement and treasury teams can plan for the future and mitigate potential price volatility, ensuring a reliable and affordable supply of these essential materials. This can help to optimise procurement strategies, minimise risks, and increase the competitiveness of EVs in the market.
In addition, our price forecasting can help support EV uptake by providing transparency in commodity purchasing risk. Let SFA help you make informed decisions about purchasing the necessary battery metals at the right time and the best price, ensuring a reliable and affordable supply of these essential materials. This can help to drive down the cost of EVs, making them more accessible to consumers and accelerating the transition to a cleaner and more sustainable future.
Case studies
Insight into electric vehicle technology
Electric vehicle study, including batteries and lithium supply and demand
A major conglomerate selected SFA (Oxford) to provide an understanding of electric vehicle technology and associated battery developments, as well as an assessment of lithium supply and demand and of the market dynamics influencing long-term supply and demand.
A comparative analysis of the impact of future powertrains on PGMs, cobalt and lithium, with ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ cases for electric vehicle uptake
Influence of future powertrains on critical metals
SFA (Oxford) was commissioned by a major fabricator to undertake a full assessment of the metal powertrains mix for cobalt and lithium in electric vehicles and platinum group metals in internal combustion engine vehicles. The team considered different market scenarios and potential impacts on long-term metal prices based upon detailed supply and demand detailed supply-demand modelling.
Joining the dots on the battery metals
A detailed evaluation and investor’s guide on how EV uptake is developing and how individual supply chains for cobalt, lithium and nickel are evolving
The SFA (Oxford) team produced long-term market outlooks for lithium, nickel and cobalt to 2040 for a major mining company, evaluating the deployment of electric vehicles and future metal demand. The team assimilated the breakdown of electric vehicle chemistries by type and regional variability (NMC for EU, LFP for China etc.), supplied a detailed review of the major battery fabricators and calculated battery metal demand by OEM.
Additional supply chain analysis covered the current market status quo, technology evolution, producer reserves and resources, historical supply and demand, demand segments and uses, value chain economics, major producer metal profiles, regional ESG factors, metal substitution risk, price forecasting, and identifying new investment windows of economic opportunity.
Independent analysis of the lithium hydroxide market out to 2025
The business case for downstream refining of battery-grade lithium hydroxide
SFA (Oxford) presented a detailed current and forecast lithium hydroxide (LiOH) market balance and analytical report to assess the medium-term LiOH market dynamics and pricing to advance the investment case for a new plant on behalf of a lithium producer.
Lithium market intelligence
Security of lithium supply under varying outlooks for electric vehicle penetration
A major car manufacturer commissioned SFA (Oxford) to assess the long-term potential of the lithium market and product prices to assess new upstream investment opportunities.
The changing nature of the cobalt market and metal prices from the likely effect of automotive and battery technological advances
Cobalt market study out to 2040
A major cathode fabricator commissioned SFA to assess the long-term viability of the cobalt market in response to changing battery technology chemistries and performance factors for batteries in electric vehicles and to understand to 2040 the likely supply, demand and pricing profiles.
Developing pitch book documentation for lithium clients for contractual purposes
Keeping lithium players informed for commercial success
SFA (Oxford) has aided lithium producers with industry and regional contextualisation, lithium market outlooks and price forecasts to strengthen supply chain negotiations and enhance market messaging.
Long-term market intelligence for nickel, cobalt, lithium
Equilateral thinking
SFA (Oxford) produced long-term forecasts and detailed market analytics for the three primary battery metals, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Independent supply and demand market balances and price forecasts to highlight the changing evolution of battery technologies, market consumption, substitution and recycling threats across the different end-use markets.
Quarterly strategic reviews and outlook for lithium, nickel and cobalt
Regular battery metal market price risk intelligence
Major carmakers, investors and suppliers use the SFA (Oxford) team to track the rapidly evolving nature of government policy, electric vehicle (EV) roll-out plans, the battery industry value chain, and key market players to provide up-to-date risks to metal markets and prices.
Quarterly assessments track changes to the evolution of battery chemistries and cathode developments, commercialisation timing, regional appraisal of battery supply chain forces, battery plant investments, OEM EV and hybrid roll-out successes, risks to new EV products and OEM companies, developments in EV infrastructure, evolving changes in the hydrogen economy and the fuel cell market, latest metal supply chain developments, project supply forecasts, technological breakthroughs, battery-grade metal supply risks, China's dominance on intermediates and battery precursor materials, and a five-year price outlook.
Evaluating nickel assets in Australasia
Unlocking the full potential of nickel assets
SFA (Oxford) assisted a due diligence team in assessing nickel mines and projects across Australasia for strategic investment consideration.
The team critically evaluated the significance of the nickel targets, provided long-term price forecasts for input into financial models, identified potential market premiums, interrogated downstream investment optionality, assessed technical product risks and offtake agreement strategies, and market contextualisation.
Evaluating nickel assets on behalf of a client
Supporting growth strategies in new markets
SFA (Oxford) helped to assess nickel targets across the Americas for acquisition.
The team assessed the targets in context with global peer groups, provided long-term price forecasts for financial models, and evaluated downstream processing optionality and offtake agreements.
Part of a due diligence team evaluating nickel processing plants
Assessing off-take targets for acquisition
The SFA (Oxford) analysts have aided a client to evaluate nickel processing plants across the globe for successful acquisition. To support the due diligence team we contextualised nickel targets, provided product price forecasts and augmented transactional rationale with detailed analysis and risks of changing the product portfolio to serve the battery industry and assessed average realised premiums.
Lithium investment case on behalf for a major car manufacturer
Investment committee submission: independent report
Submitted a detailed report and lithium product price forecasts to the client to offer an independent evaluation of the impact of electric vehicles, electronics and industrial applications on lithium price projections. The report also provided project incentive pricing for hard rock mines and brine operations, and an appraisal of potential new project supply.
Asia-Pacific Rim nickel-cobalt producer’s study
Nickel laterites and HPAL processing assessment
SFA (Oxford) conducted a regional analysis of all Asia-Pacific Rim nickel-cobalt producers from nickel laterite deposits, to identify all regional players, volumes and trading links, as well as focusing on HPAL (high-pressure acid lead) operations and projects, and providing a 5-year price view of the nickel and cobalt markets.
Ask us for our latest price forecasts and scenarios
Contact one of our team for more details.
Henk de Hoop
Chief Executive Officer
Beresford Clarke
Managing Director: Technical & Research
Jamie Underwood
Principal Consultant
Kimberly Berman
Energy Transition Technology and Metals Specialist
Dr Emilio Soberón
Principal Consultant
Thomas Chandler
Principal Lithium Supply Analyst
Lakshya Gupta
Senior Market Analyst: Battery Materials and Technologies
Adele Rouleau
ESG and Critical Minerals Lead
Dr Fahad Aljahdali
Senior Energy Consultant
Eknoor Arora
Mining Analyst
Gyubin Hwang
Consultant
Nelsa Martins
Senior Technical Consultant
David Mobbs
Head of Marketing
Joel Lacey
Sales and Marketing Specialist
Other consulting solutions
Explore other services our clients use regularly.
Due diligence studies and commercial advisory
Working with clients and third parties, SFA has a long track record of providing battery metals technical due diligence and financial modelling support.
Mergers, acquisitions, and corporate defence
Clients have used SFA to provide the analytical link with banks and financial institutions to support investment decision making and provide robust market support.
IPO market chapters and feasibility studies
SFA has supported numerous client listings by providing an independent view of the lithium, nickel and cobalt markets to help secure capital from potential investors.
Peer-group benchmarking and margin analysis
SFA's battery metals benchmarking is unrivalled, providing you with a detailed understanding of which assets are outperforming and those most at risk.
Strategy, planning and Board support
SFA is a trusted advisor to boardrooms and senior management to major stakeholders and provides regular assistance to battery metals strategy and planning.
Battery metals processing and commercial options
SFA has extensive experience assessing clients battery metal processing facilities and offtake options and supply chain offtake due diligence.
Investor Board packs and investor roadshows
SFA regularly supports clients on roadshows to assist on capital raisings and converse with fund managers, institutional investors and family wealth offices.
Black swan events and market impacts
The SFA team is constantly providing rich insights for its clients on structural events moving the battery metals markets and battery technology substitution.
Corporate ESG strategy and battery metals stewardship
SFA works closely with value chain players to understand how materially significant ESG issues can be integrated into their wider company strategy.
Peer-group ESG battery metals benchmarking
SFA's benchmarking of battery metal producers on material ESG factors generates high-resolution insights for sustainability-conscious investors.
Battery life cycle analysis and ESG impact
SFA evaluates the long and complex life cycle analysis of battery metals and materials to improve the recycling opportunities available for market stakeholders.
Automotive powertrains and battery metals demand
SFA delivers detailed insights into market risks of automotive technologies for light-duty, heavy-duty, off-road and fuel cell vehicles to meet emission targets.
Energy storage to support renewable energy strategies
The pressure for renewable energy generation will require intermittent chemical energy storage solutions to support international climate change objectives.
EV charging and infrastructure deployment
With charging infrastructure lagging behind EV sales, SFA is on hand to help determine which localised markets will support battery electric vehicles.
EV recycling opportunities and value chain assessment
The rapid rise in electric vehicles means the recycling market needs to prepare for processing the growth in the supply of nickel, lithium and cobalt.
Joining the dots for other battery metals & materials
SFA evaluates the strategic opportunities of other strategic battery materials such as manganese, vanadium, copper, graphite, silica, and rare earth elements.
Battery technologies – opportunities and threats
SFA analyses the emergence of the new and competing cathode, anode and electrolyte technologies, market adoption and the fall-out this has on battery materials.
How can we help you?
SFA (Oxford) provides bespoke, independent intelligence on the strategic metal markets, specifically tailored to your needs. To find out more about what we can offer you, please contact us.