Palladium Market Reports
From its humble beginnings in the 1970s and 1980s, the palladium market has grown to over 10 million ounces, mainly as a result of it being a substitute for platinum in autocatalysts for gasoline cars. Russian state stocks have dried up, whilst underlying global primary supply has hardly changed and palladium is now trading at a premium to platinum. However, with palladium overwhelmingly reliant on autocatalysts, accounting for 79% of demand, could this prove to be a 'boom or bust' situation?
SFA (Oxford) provides regular market intelligence reports on palladium as well as in-depth studies on recycling, metal flows and price setting.
The PGM Quarterly Report
The impact of COVID-19 has led to a fundamental change in SFA's view of the platinum-group metals market.
SFA’s Quarterly PGM Market Outlook Report provides price forecasts over the next three years for palladium, platinum and rhodium. The report outlines the drivers of demand, the pressure points, and the risks around supply security. All your questions will be answered in a follow-up call with the analyst team, who between them have over 140 years’ experience in the platinum-group metals.
The report is available to order now. However, if you require information urgently, please do not hesitate to contact us. Details are provided on our Contact page.
Who should read this report
- All industry stakeholders and new business entrants who need to keep abreast of the evolving influences on the palladium, platinum and rhodium markets and prices, including end-users, recyclers, mining companies and juniors.
- Investors and financial institutions needing to understand and quantify the risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and short- to medium-term prices.
The quarterly market report
To refine our already proven formula of event-driven palladium, platinum and rhodium market analysis and medium-term price forecasts, the SFA (Oxford) team produces, on a quarterly basis, a report that raises the bar for platinum-group metals industry analytics. The PGM Quarterly Report, a risk-focused report that details on-the-horizon, price-impacting factors, is widely considered to be the benchmark in regular research offering analytical charts and scenarios as an essential guide to today's PGM markets.
Released four times a year on a subscription basis, The PGM Quarterly Report will keep you up to date with the palladium, platinum and rhodium markets and provide you with a competitive edge.
The content of each market report will vary according to PGM industry events and market developments, but will be tailored to incorporate an individual client’s specific strategic requirements. Typically, the report will include:
- Macroeconomic developments on supply-demand fundamentals and technology
- The impact of changing vehicle production forecasts, new emissions legislation, powertrain technology and substitution on end-use demand
- Macroeconomic, demographic and price influences on jewellery demand and recycling
- Tracking and reporting on the evolution of other industrial demand, including capacity expansions, new end-uses and threats
- Updates and advice on the present and future stability and growth of primary palladium supply and demand
- The economics of primary PGM supply, including factors influencing cost inflation and exchange rate and volume impacts
- Comments on the political and socio-economic risks impacting on primary palladium supply in politically sensitive PGM-producing regions (South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia)
- Quantification of secondary supply, including business drivers, processing capacities and incentive pricing
- Investment, lease rates, trade and changes to the global stockpile
- 'What if' scenario analysis and price risk assessment
- Economic derivation of metal prices with a three-year outlook
Each report is supported by a conference call directly with SFA (Oxford)'s team of analysts, which will take place shortly after you receive the report. Here, our team of analysts can answer any questions you may have about the platinum-group metals industry and markets.
The Long-Term PGM Market Outlook Report
SFA (Oxford)'s PGM Market Outlook reports are, collectively, an in-depth, forward-looking reporting service on the current and long-term trends and influences acting on the global PGM markets, their sources of supply and demand, and their investment vehicles. Released biannually and tailored to individual client requirements, each report delivers a concise picture of the key PGM metal markets, and is vital in understanding the price risks and sustainability of the market for investment strategising and participation in any part of the PGM value chain.
This detailed analysis and valuable industry insight is backed up by eleven analysts working discreetly with the industry in all areas of the value chain, whether at South African mines, valuing projects and plants around the world, working with fabricators to assess the impact of new end-uses, visiting China and Japan to investigate their jewellery markets or with corporate Boards conducting price risk analysis for multi-million dollar business decisions.
Find out more
To view the contents list of our latest 350-page edition, please click on the download button.
Special 2020 report
This special edition is packed with all-inclusive analysis of the platinum, palladium and rhodium markets out to 2030.
For the first time as a new regular feature, the report includes SFA’s first projections and narrative on fuel cell demand in its supply-demand balances (covering autos, electrolysers and other industry uses).
In addition, regular detailed ESG analytics is introduced, comprising the entire PGM food chain from suppliers to users, at the start of a long journey and strategic imperative for the PGM sector.
Also incorporated into this special edition is an insightful one-off chapter, Changes to Russia's political system and Putin's future, by eminent guest author and SFA (Oxford)'s Associate, Professor Paul Chaisty of St. Antony's College, University of Oxford.
This report provides SFA's clientele with well-reasoned, pre- and post-COVID-19 value-adding market intelligence, along with an array of carefully considered scenarios impacting on the upstream and downstream chain-linkages of the PGM industry.
This report distils 21 reasons for PGM players and investors to adopt a new perspective on PGMs, including:
- Structural changes to our market view with price risk extrapolation.
- How COVID-19 affects inter-metal substitution.
- The impact of pre- and post-COVID-19 automotive trends plus emissions legislation.
- Decarbonising industry and transport; fuel cells and electrolysers as a new end-use.
- Movement of platinum bars as investment stock.
- Recycling and primary supply scrutiny.
- Reserve depletion rates and mine economics, including cost-curve analytics.
- Impact of COVID-19 on PGM projects.
Who should read this report
- Commodity risk managers from fabricators, car companies, petroleum companies and other end-users, for help with assessing price volatility, price direction, or the economics and security of supply.
- Financiers, pension funds, investors and other financial institutions needing to understand the long-term risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and long-term prices for project and business valuation.
- Miners, refiners and juniors that require long-term prices and market justification for project appraisal, investment timing, business strategy, and an independent view on the markets.
- New business entrants.
The report contains:
- Robust, economically derived, PGM price forecasts for ten years based on fundamental global and regional supply-demand market developments and relevant macroeconomic factors. The Board note offers an explanation of the influence of both the project incentive price and mine closure inducement price on the long-term average price, along with assumptions and calculations used to derive such logic, including an associated incentive price by project. Similarly, SFA (Oxford)’s methodology for a long-term average price beyond a five-year forward curve and its use as a proxy for the average pricing beyond 2020 is articulated.
- An analysis of global demand trends on a regional basis, covering the major PGM end-use sectors (autocatalysis, jewellery, glass, petroleum, electronics, chemical, nitric acid, and medical/dental) and including the investment sector (such as exchange-traded funds).
- An analysis of global autocatalyst demand, with special attention applied to environmental legislation affecting global emission standards, gasoline, diesel and hybrid trends, PGM loadings (thrifting) and the substitutability of platinum and palladium in this end-use sector. Future automotive developments and opportunities for PGM demand growth are also commented on, including fuel cell technology, hybrid vehicles and other alternative fuels. A breakdown of autocatalyst history/forecasts by region and associated assumptions (automobile volume and associated intensity of PGM loadings) is included.
- An assessment of the future potential volumes of recycling, including autocatalyst, electronics and jewellery scrapping rates. The analysis covers collection rates, types and age of scrap supply, timing, contained metal and ratios, and the business case to recycle, as well as incentive prices and impacts from price volatility.
- Reports of historical, current and future producer mine supply trends for PGMs, referencing recent expansions and their deliverability, other new projects, including the junior sector coming online, and projects shelved or postponed. PGMs produced as by-products of base-metal mining are also considered.
- A comprehensive explanation of the long-term cost of producing virgin metal, taking account of the cost and profit dynamics of production on a regional basis (Western Bushveld, Eastern Bushveld, Zimbabwe, USA, Canada and Russia). Forward extrapolations of production profiles, costs and margins have been conducted to provide short-, medium- and long-term pictures of producers’ profitability. Mines which do not have PGMs as their primary output but which are, nevertheless, substantial PGM producers (‘Nornickel’, a nickel producer, and ‘Canadian other’, which includes the operations of Vale and Falconbridge) are also included in our analysis.
- Producer profiles using a consistent framework for comparison based on cash costs and excluding capital, financing and depreciation/amortisation charges. The basic cost measurement reflects primarily physical production costs and includes other cash costs incurred, being mainly corporate overheads, marketing and royalties, etc. Costs are calculated net of the credits arising from the sale of by-products (Net TCC/4E oz). Rand currency sensitivity comments are included and key components/assumptions for the cash cost curve are defined.
The 2040 PGM Market Outlook Report
This new 300-page ground-breaking study examines, on a deep-dive basis, the changing nature of the PGM market and metal prices from the likely effects of automotive technological advances.
The 2040 PGM Market Outlook Report
To find out more about our latest 2040 PGM Market Outlook Report, please click on the download button.
The report contains:
- Vital information needed to best gauge the impacts of palladium, platinum and rhodium usage as a result of shifts in powertrains (gasoline, diesel, hybrid, battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles), metal substitution and the potential emergence of significant autocatalyst recycling in China.
- Long-term sensitivity analysis of automotive technology (where the impact of the accelerated production of electric vehicles is extrapolated beyond SFA’s traditional ten-year forecast period) and gives a detailed forecast evaluation of the PGM market (including metal prices) out to 2040. Specifically, the report highlights the potential fallout from electric car inflection point scenarios in the 2020s on palladium and rhodium demand and prices.
- An analysis of the changing nature and economics of global supply, including the effect on the future supply of the restructuring of the South African industry and recent closures, as well as consideration and profiling of palladium-rich projects scheduled for start-up in the 2020s. An examination of the importance of chrome, iridium and ruthenium to mine revenue and the potential impact on supply is also given.
Who should read this report
- Juniors and mining companies with advanced projects, mines in development or operations ramping up to full production.
- Investors and financiers requiring a long-term understanding of the risks to platinum-group metals from the rise of electric cars, which is key to investments in PGM mines and projects that are commissioned in the 2020s.
- Fabricators and industrial end-users requiring strategic direction on the long-term influences on the platinum-group metals markets.
- Governments and manufacturers concerned about the availability of platinum-group metals for fuel-cell-powered cars and equipment.
- New business entrants.
The Palladium Standard
Given the perpetual challenges facing the PGM industry, and the turning point at which it now sits, SFA (Oxford), spurred on by public demand, felt a certain responsibility to the industry as a trusted source of PGM analysis to create a publication that brings to light those issues – industrial, economic, and political – that we believe will shape the PGM industry of tomorrow.
One-half review, one-half preview, The Palladium Standard comprises analytical articles on those issues we believe will set the PGM agenda for the years ahead and is released annually in September in New York Platinum Week.
Each issue also collates all the key industry data and indicators for the past 12 months, taking account of the major factors that have impacted PGM supply, demand and pricing over that period. These data are then inserted into SFA (Oxford)’s trusted brand of supply-demand tables to create a comprehensive, full-year view of the PGM markets.