Consulting analysts in tomorrow’s commodities and technologies

Palladium Market Reports

From its humble beginnings in the 1970s and 1980s, the palladium market has grown to over 10 million ounces, mainly as a result of it being a substitute for platinum in autocatalysts for gasoline cars. Russian state stocks have dried up, whilst underlying global primary supply has hardly changed and palladium is now trading at a premium to platinum. However, with palladium overwhelmingly reliant on autocatalysts, accounting for 79% of demand, could this prove to be a 'boom or bust' situation?

SFA (Oxford) provides regular market intelligence reports on palladium as well as in-depth studies on recycling, metal flows and price setting.

The PGM Quarterly Report

To refine our already proven formula of event-driven palladium, platinum and rhodium market analysis and medium-term price forecasts, the SFA (Oxford) team produces, on a quarterly basis, a report that raises the bar for platinum-group metals industry analytics. The PGM Quarterly Report, a risk-focused report that details on-the-horizon, price-impacting factors, is widely considered to be the benchmark in regular research offering analytical charts and scenarios as an essential guide to today's PGM markets.

Who should read this report

  • All industry stakeholders and new business entrants who need to keep abreast of the evolving influences on the palladium, platinum and rhodium markets and prices, including end-users, recyclers, mining companies and juniors.
  • Investors and financial institutions needing to understand and quantify the risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and short- to medium-term prices.

The quarterly market report

Released four times a year on a subscription basis, The PGM Quarterly Report will keep you up to date with the palladium, platinum and rhodium markets and provide you with a competitive edge.

The content of each market report will vary according to PGM industry events and market developments, but will be tailored to incorporate an individual client’s specific strategic requirements. Typically, the report will include:

  • Macroeconomic developments on supply-demand fundamentals and technology
  • The impact of changing vehicle production forecasts, new emissions legislation, powertrain technology and substitution on end-use demand
  • Macroeconomic, demographic and price influences on jewellery demand and recycling
  • Tracking and reporting on the evolution of other industrial demand, including capacity expansions, new end-uses and threats
  • Updates and advice on the present and future stability and growth of primary platinum supply and demand
  • The economics of primary PGM supply, including factors influencing cost inflation and exchange rate and volume impacts
  • Comments on the political and socio-economic risks impacting on primary palladium supply in politically sensitive PGM-producing regions (South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia)
  • Quantification of secondary supply, including business drivers, processing capacities and incentive pricing
  • Investment, lease rates, trade and changes to the global stockpile
  • 'What if' scenario analysis and price risk assessment
  • Economic derivation of metal prices with a three-year outlook

Conference call

Each report is supported by a conference call directly with SFA (Oxford)'s team of analysts, which will take place shortly after you receive the report. Here, our team of analysts can answer any questions you may have about the platinum-group metals industry and markets. 

The Long-Term PGM Market Outlook Report

SFA (Oxford)'s PGM Market Outlook reports are, collectively, an in-depth, forward-looking reporting service on the current and long-term trends and influences acting on the global PGM markets, their sources of supply and demand, and their investment vehicles. Released biannually and tailored to individual client requirements, each report delivers a concise picture of the key PGM metal markets, and is vital in understanding the price risks and sustainability of the market for investment strategising and participation in any part of the PGM value chain.

This detailed analysis and valuable industry insight is backed up by eleven analysts working discreetly with the industry in all areas of the value chain, whether at South African mines, valuing projects and plants around the world, working with fabricators to assess the impact of new end-uses, visiting China and Japan to investigate their jewellery markets or with corporate Boards conducting price risk analysis for multi-million dollar business decisions.

Who should read this report

  • Commodity risk managers from fabricators, car companies, petroleum companies and other end-users, for help with assessing price volatility, price direction, or the economics and security of supply.
  • Financiers, pension funds, investors and other financial institutions needing to understand the long-term risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and long-term prices for project and business valuation.
  • Miners, refiners and juniors that require long-term prices and market justification for project appraisal, investment timing, business strategy, and an independent view on the markets.
  • New business entrants.

The report

The report contains:

  • Robust, economically derived, PGM price forecasts for ten years based on fundamental global and regional supply-demand market developments and relevant macroeconomic factors. The Board note offers an explanation of the influence of both the project incentive price and mine closure inducement price on the long-term average price, along with assumptions and calculations used to derive such logic, including an associated incentive price by project. Similarly, SFA (Oxford)’s methodology for a long-term average price beyond a five-year forward curve and its use as a proxy for the average pricing beyond 2020 is articulated.
  • An analysis of global demand trends on a regional basis, covering the major PGM end-use sectors (autocatalysis, jewellery, glass, petroleum, electronics, chemical, nitric acid, and medical/dental) and including the investment sector (such as exchange-traded funds).
  • An analysis of global autocatalytic demand, with special attention applied to environmental legislation affecting global emission standards, gasoline, diesel and hybrid trends, PGM loadings (thrifting) and the substitutability of platinum and palladium in this end-use sector. Future automotive developments and opportunities for PGM demand growth will also be commented on, including fuel cell technology, hybrid vehicles and other alternative fuels. A breakdown of autocatalyst history/forecasts by region and associated assumptions (automobile volume and associated intensity of PGM loadings) will be added.
  • An assessment of the future potential volumes of recycling will be presented, to include autocatalyst, jewellery and electronic scrapping rates. The analysis will cover collection rates, types and age of scrap supply, timing, contained metal and ratios, and the business case to recycle, as well as incentive prices and impacts from price volatility.
  • Reports of historical, current and future producer mine supply trends for PGMs, referencing recent expansions and their deliverability, other new projects, including the junior sector coming on-line and projects shelved or postponed. PGMs produced as by-products of base-metal mining will also be considered.
  • A comprehensive explanation of the long-term cost of producing virgin metal, taking account of the cost and profit dynamics of production on a regional basis (Western Bushveld, Eastern Bushveld, Zimbabwe, USA, Canada and Russia). Forward extrapolations of producer production profiles, costs and margins will be conducted to provide a short-, medium- and long-term picture of producers’ profitability. Mines which do not have PGMs as their primary output but which are, nevertheless, substantial PGM producers (‘Nornickel’, a nickel producer, and ‘Canadian other’, which includes the operations of Vale and Falconbridge) are also included in our analysis.
  • Producer profiles using a consistent framework for comparison based on cash costs and excluding capital, financing and depreciation/amortisation charges. The basic cost measurement reflects primarily physical production costs and includes other cash costs incurred, being mainly corporate overheads, marketing and royalties, etc. Costs are calculated net of the credits arising from the sale of by-products (Net TCC/4E oz). Rand currency sensitivity comments will be included. Key components/assumptions for the cash cost curve will be defined.