The Palladium Market
Palladium price drivers
An introduction to palladium
Palladium is primarily used as a catalyst in the automotive sector, mainly in gasoline-powered on-road vehicles, and has displaced platinum in some parts of on-road diesel engine autocatalysts. The second main use of palladium is in electrical components, specifically in multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs), as conductive pastes and in electrical plating.
From its humble beginnings in the 1970s and 1980s, the palladium market has grown to over 10 million ounces, mainly as a result of it being a substitute for platinum in autocatalysts for gasoline cars. Russian state stocks have dried up, whilst underlying global primary supply has hardly changed and palladium is now trading at a premium to platinum. However, with palladium overwhelmingly reliant on autocatalysts, accounting for 79% of demand, could this prove to be a 'boom or bust' situation?
Palladium price news and insights
SFA's expert view on the palladium price spike
18 December 2023 | Dr Ralph Grimble
The palladium price surged last week due to a convergence of positive factors. The Fed acknowledged the peak in US inflation during its press conference, leading to a more dovish outlook for interest rates and a weaker US dollar, supporting commodity prices.
Palladium: How low can it go?
10 November 2023 | Beresford Clarke
On Thursday this week, the price of palladium passed through $1,000/oz for the first time since September 2018. Substitution for platinum in autocatalysts and a less-than-rosy outlook for 2024 autocatalyst demand has contributed to palladium’s ongoing 18-month bear market.
It’s safe-haven vs. speculation as gold hits new highs
11 March 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Cost-cutting is yet to slice into South Africa’s platinum production
26 February 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Vehicle electrification is not nessesarily one way traffic for PGMs
5 February 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Palladium's premium to platinum may disappear this year
22 January 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Palladium price in context, 1980 to 2023
Palladium market balance
koz | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | |
Primary palladium supply | |||||||||
Regional | |||||||||
South Africa | 2375 | 2530 | 2500 | 2555 | 1845 | 2755 | 2240 | 2390 | |
Russia | 2555 | 2740 | 2670 | 2870 | 2810 | 2585 | 2790 | 2405 | |
Zimbabwe | 395 | 395 | 380 | 385 | 405 | 395 | 420 | 440 | |
North America | 1065 | 985 | 1035 | 975 | 950 | 840 | 740 | 770 | |
Other | 420 | 415 | 395 | 395 | 385 | 265 | 270 | 270 | |
Total | 6810 | 7065 | 6975 | 7180 | 6395 | 6845 | 6460 | 6275 | |
Palladium demand and recycling |
|||||||||
Palladium autocatalyst demand | |||||||||
Gross Pd autocatalyst demand | 7925 | 8140 | 8300 | 8445 | 7435 | 7595 | 7730 | 7685 | |
Pd autocatalyst recycling | 1710 | 1920 | 2035 | 2175 | 2010 | 2380 | 2095 | 2205 | |
Net Pd autocatalyst demand | 6210 | 6220 | 6265 | 6270 | 5430 | 5220 | 5635 | 5480 | |
Palladium jewellery demand | |||||||||
Gross Pd jewellery demand | 240 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 200 | 215 | 225 | 235 | |
Pd jewellery recycling | 80 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | |
Net Pd jewellery demand | 165 | 155 | 155 | 155 | 145 | 155 | 160 | 165 | |
Industrial palladium demand | 1900 | 1840 | 1840 | 1715 | 1640 | 1655 | 1550 | 1540 | |
Other palladium recycling | 390 | 380 | 370 | 365 | 335 | 415 | 365 | 350 | |
Gross palladium demand | 10,065 | 10,195 | 10,355 | 10,375 | 9,280 | 9,470 | 9,505 | 9,460 | |
Palladium recycling | 2180 | 2360 | 2465 | 2600 | 2395 | 2855 | 2525 | 2625 | |
Net palladium demand | 7890 | 7835 | 7890 | 7780 | 6880 | 6615 | 6980 | 6835 | |
Palladium market balance | |||||||||
Palladium balance (before ETFs) | -1,080 | -775 | -910 | -600 | -485 | 235 | -520 | -565 | |
Palladium ETFs (stock allocation) | -640 | -375 | -560 | -90 | -115 | 50 | -90 | ||
Palladium balance after ETFs | -440 | -400 | -350 | -515 | -370 | 185 | -430 | -565 | |
Palladium price history | |||||||||
Palladium price (USD/oz) |
691 | 613 | 870 | 1,030 | 1,538 | 2,194 | 2,108 | ||
Palladium price (GBP/oz) | 452 | 457 | 674 | 773 | 1,205 | 1,707 | 1,707 | ||
Palladium price (EUR/oz) | 622 | 555 | 768 | 874 | 1,375 | 1,922 | 2,003 | ||
Palladium price (CNY/oz) | 4,333 | 4,082 | 5,861 | 6,827 | 10,641 | 15,117 | 14,157 | ||
Palladium price (ZAR/oz) | 8,741 | 8,956 | 11,580 | 13,673 | 22,247 | 35,940 | 34,391 | ||
Palladium price (JPY/oz) | 83,503 | 66,501 | 97,485 | 113,853 | 167,631 | 234,191 | 276,105 | ||
Source: SFA (Oxford). Updated May 2023.
Linked palladium market reports
SFA (Oxford) provides regular bespoke market intelligence reports on palladium as well as in-depth studies on recycling, metal flows and price setting.
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