The Palladium Market
Palladium price drivers
An introduction to palladium
Palladium is primarily used as a catalyst in the automotive sector, mainly in gasoline-powered on-road vehicles, and has displaced platinum in some parts of on-road diesel engine autocatalysts. The second main use of palladium is in electrical components, specifically in multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs), as conductive pastes and in electrical plating.
From its humble beginnings in the 1970s and 1980s, the palladium market has grown to over 10 million ounces, mainly as a result of it being a substitute for platinum in autocatalysts for gasoline cars. Russian state stocks have dried up, whilst underlying global primary supply has hardly changed and palladium is now trading at a premium to platinum. However, with palladium overwhelmingly reliant on autocatalysts, accounting for 79% of demand, could this prove to be a 'boom or bust' situation?
Palladium price news and insights
SFA's expert view on the palladium price spike
18 December 2023 | Dr Ralph Grimble
The palladium price surged last week due to a convergence of positive factors. The Fed acknowledged the peak in US inflation during its press conference, leading to a more dovish outlook for interest rates and a weaker US dollar, supporting commodity prices.
Palladium: How low can it go?
10 November 2023 | Beresford Clarke
On Thursday this week, the price of palladium passed through $1,000/oz for the first time since September 2018. Substitution for platinum in autocatalysts and a less-than-rosy outlook for 2024 autocatalyst demand has contributed to palladium’s ongoing 18-month bear market.
It’s safe-haven vs. speculation as gold hits new highs
11 March 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Cost-cutting is yet to slice into South Africa’s platinum production
26 February 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Vehicle electrification is not nessesarily one way traffic for PGMs
5 February 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Palladium's premium to platinum may disappear this year
22 January 2024 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus
Palladium price in context, 1980 to 2023
Palladium market balance
| koz | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | |
| Primary palladium supply | |||||||||
| Regional | |||||||||
| South Africa | 2375 | 2530 | 2500 | 2555 | 1845 | 2755 | 2240 | 2390 | |
| Russia | 2555 | 2740 | 2670 | 2870 | 2810 | 2585 | 2790 | 2405 | |
| Zimbabwe | 395 | 395 | 380 | 385 | 405 | 395 | 420 | 440 | |
| North America | 1065 | 985 | 1035 | 975 | 950 | 840 | 740 | 770 | |
| Other | 420 | 415 | 395 | 395 | 385 | 265 | 270 | 270 | |
| Total | 6810 | 7065 | 6975 | 7180 | 6395 | 6845 | 6460 | 6275 | |
| Palladium demand and recycling |
|||||||||
| Palladium autocatalyst demand | |||||||||
| Gross Pd autocatalyst demand | 7925 | 8140 | 8300 | 8445 | 7435 | 7595 | 7730 | 7685 | |
| Pd autocatalyst recycling | 1710 | 1920 | 2035 | 2175 | 2010 | 2380 | 2095 | 2205 | |
| Net Pd autocatalyst demand | 6210 | 6220 | 6265 | 6270 | 5430 | 5220 | 5635 | 5480 | |
| Palladium jewellery demand | |||||||||
| Gross Pd jewellery demand | 240 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 200 | 215 | 225 | 235 | |
| Pd jewellery recycling | 80 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | |
| Net Pd jewellery demand | 165 | 155 | 155 | 155 | 145 | 155 | 160 | 165 | |
| Industrial palladium demand | 1900 | 1840 | 1840 | 1715 | 1640 | 1655 | 1550 | 1540 | |
| Other palladium recycling | 390 | 380 | 370 | 365 | 335 | 415 | 365 | 350 | |
| Gross palladium demand | 10,065 | 10,195 | 10,355 | 10,375 | 9,280 | 9,470 | 9,505 | 9,460 | |
| Palladium recycling | 2180 | 2360 | 2465 | 2600 | 2395 | 2855 | 2525 | 2625 | |
| Net palladium demand | 7890 | 7835 | 7890 | 7780 | 6880 | 6615 | 6980 | 6835 | |
| Palladium market balance | |||||||||
| Palladium balance (before ETFs) | -1,080 | -775 | -910 | -600 | -485 | 235 | -520 | -565 | |
| Palladium ETFs (stock allocation) | -640 | -375 | -560 | -90 | -115 | 50 | -90 | ||
| Palladium balance after ETFs | -440 | -400 | -350 | -515 | -370 | 185 | -430 | -565 | |
| Palladium price history | |||||||||
| Palladium price (USD/oz) |
691 | 613 | 870 | 1,030 | 1,538 | 2,194 | 2,108 | ||
| Palladium price (GBP/oz) | 452 | 457 | 674 | 773 | 1,205 | 1,707 | 1,707 | ||
| Palladium price (EUR/oz) | 622 | 555 | 768 | 874 | 1,375 | 1,922 | 2,003 | ||
| Palladium price (CNY/oz) | 4,333 | 4,082 | 5,861 | 6,827 | 10,641 | 15,117 | 14,157 | ||
| Palladium price (ZAR/oz) | 8,741 | 8,956 | 11,580 | 13,673 | 22,247 | 35,940 | 34,391 | ||
| Palladium price (JPY/oz) | 83,503 | 66,501 | 97,485 | 113,853 | 167,631 | 234,191 | 276,105 | ||
Source: SFA (Oxford). Updated May 2023.
Linked palladium market reports
SFA (Oxford) provides regular bespoke market intelligence reports on palladium as well as in-depth studies on recycling, metal flows and price setting.
The PGM Quarterly Market Report and Price Outlook
Released every three months, this price risk-focused report details-impacting factors for platinum, palladium and rhodium markets for the next three years.
PGM Market Report and Price Outlook to 2040
Our highly detailed market view provides current and long-term trends and influences acting on the global PGM markets.
Heraeus Precious Appraisal and Market Spotlights
In collaboration with Heraeus, this weekly report makes sure all the key precious metal and macroeconomic developments are fully analysed by the SFA team.
Joining the Dots between the PGM markets & prices
Unrivalled insights and definitive answers to PGM purchasing dynamics, metal flows, trading and pricing factors affecting platinum, palladium and rhodium.
Spent Autocatalyst PGM Recycling Mapped
A comprehensive study of recycled autocatalysts from scrapyards, collection, decanners, smelting and refining players, technology developments and economics.
Global PGM Project Monitor Outlook
DCF scenario modelling analysing the attractiveness of global PGM projects based on incentivised PGM pricing which can motivate new supply.
Long-term PGM Supply Appraisal Outlook
An evaluation on future platinum, palladium and rhodium supply risk from mines and projects around the world, and the economic cost of production.
Global PGM Mine Depletion Assessment
Analytics on the PGM primary production landscape, assessing estimated depletion rates of mines and projects, forecasting ounce loss.
North America PGM Market Outlook
An assessment of PGM purchasing, trade flows and end-use consumption as well as mapping key industry players for strategic investment.
China PGM Market Outlook
Bottom-up evaluation of the precious metals trading environment, regulatory framework, end-use markets, recycling volumes and key players.
India PGM Market Outlook
Detailed market intelligence on PGM demand and supply, major players and the recycling market to assist strategic planning.
Northern Hemisphere PGM Processing Report
Processing analytics, capacity utilisation rates, logistical flows and plant feeds for the PGM smelters, and refineries of North America, Europe and Russia.
Southeast Asia PGM Market Outlook
A critical impact study of PGM consumption by country of major-end uses, and future metal requirements by company.
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