Consulting analysts in tomorrow’s commodities and technologies

Platinum Market Reports

Platinum is the primary revenue driver for South African mines. The metal was used extensively in catalytic converters to control toxic emissions from both gasoline and diesel cars, but over time palladium has increasingly become the metal of choice in gasoline vehicles and has also replaced some of the platinum in diesel cars. Platinum jewellery has become popular in China and is growing in India, while the use of platinum has continued to be critical in oil refining, glass manufacturing and medical applications.

SFA (Oxford) provides regular market intelligence reports on platinum as well as in-depth studies on recycling, metal flows and price setting.

The PGM Quarterly Report

A new decade, and platinum-group metals are high on the agenda. Recently, the rhodium price has breached £10,000/oz, the palladium price has hit record levels in excess of $2,000/oz and the price of platinum has recovered to $1,000/oz. Arguably, these high prices mean this is the most challenging time for car companies, industrial end-users and investors alike. Buy now before prices go higher or wait until it all calms down? Where are prices heading? What’s caused the rapid increase in prices since the start of the year? SFA is here to offer a sound basis for strategic decision-making in the most uncertain of times for the platinum-group metals in more than 10 years.

SFA’s Quarterly PGM Market Outlook Report provides price forecasts over the next three years for platinum, palladium and rhodium. The report outlines the drivers of demand, the pressure points, and the risks around supply security. All your questions will be answered in a follow-up call with the analyst team, who between them have over 140 years’ experience in the platinum-group metals.

The report is out in February, so be sure to order a copy now. Or, if you can’t wait and need answers immediately, please get in touch and we will help.


Who should read this report

  • All industry stakeholders and new business entrants who need to keep abreast of the evolving influences on the platinum, palladium and rhodium markets and prices, including end-users, recyclers, mining companies and juniors
  • Investors and financial institutions needing to understand and quantify the risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and short- to medium-term prices

The quarterly market report

To refine our already proven formula of event-driven platinum, palladium and rhodium market analysis and medium-term price forecasts, the SFA (Oxford) team produces, on a quarterly basis, a report that raises the bar for platinum-group metals industry analytics. The PGM Quarterly Report, a risk-focused report that details on-the-horizon, price-impacting factors, is widely considered to be the benchmark in regular research, offering analytical charts and scenarios as an essential guide to today’s PGM markets.

Released four times a year on a subscription basis, The PGM Quarterly Report will keep you up to date with the platinum, palladium and rhodium markets and provide you with a competitive edge.

The content of each market report will vary according to PGM industry events and market developments, but will be tailored to incorporate an individual client’s specific strategic requirements. Typically, the reports will include:

  • Macroeconomic developments on supply-demand fundamentals and technology
  • The impact of changing vehicle production forecasts, new emissions legislation, powertrain technology and substitution on end-use demand
  • Macroeconomic, demographic and price influences on jewellery demand and recycling
  • Tracking and reporting on the evolution of other industrial demand, including capacity expansions, new end-uses and threats
  • Updates and advice on the present and future stability and growth of primary platinum supply and demand
  • The economics of primary PGM supply, including factors influencing cost inflation and exchange rate and volume impacts
  • Comments on the political and socio-economic risks impacting on primary platinum supply in politically sensitive PGM-producing regions (South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia)
  • Quantification of secondary supply, including business drivers, processing capacities and incentive pricing
  • Investment, lease rates, trade and changes to the global stockpile
  • 'What if' scenario analysis and price risk assessment
  • Economic derivation of metal prices with a three-year outlook

Conference call

Each report is supported by a conference call directly with SFA (Oxford)'s team of analysts, which will take place shortly after you receive the report. Here, our team of analysts can answer any questions you may have about the platinum-group metals industry and markets. 

The Long-term PGM Market Outlook Report

SFA(Oxford)'s PGM Market Outlook reports are, collectively, an in-depth, forward-looking reporting service on the current and long-term trends and influences acting on the global PGM markets, their sources of supply and demand, and their investment vehicles. Released biannually and tailored to individual client requirements, each report delivers a concise picture of the key metal markets, and is vital in understanding the price risks and sustainability of the market for investment strategising and participation in any part of the PGM value chain.

This detailed analysis and valuable industry insight is backed up by eleven analysts working discreetly with the industry in all areas of the value chain, whether at South African mines, valuing projects and plants around the world, working with fabricators to assess the impact of new end-uses, visiting China and Japan to investigate their jewellery markets or with corporate Boards conducting price risk analysis for multi-million dollar business decisions.

Who should read this report

  • Commodity risk managers from fabricators, car companies, petroleum companies and other end-users, for help with assessing price volatility, price direction, or the economics and security of supply.
  • Financiers, pension funds, investors and other financial institutions needing to understand the long-term risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and long-term prices for project and business valuation.
  • Miners, refiners and juniors that require long-term prices and market justification for project appraisal, investment timing, business strategy, and an independent view on the markets.
  • New business entrants.

The report

The report contains:

  • Robust, economically derived, PGM price forecasts for ten years based on fundamental global and regional supply-demand market developments and relevant macroeconomic factors. The Board note offers an explanation of the influence of both the project incentive price and mine closure inducement price on the long-term average price, along with assumptions and calculations used to derive such logic, including an associated incentive price by project. Similarly, SFA (Oxford)'s methodology for a long-term average price beyond a five-year forward curve and its use as a proxy for the average pricing beyond 2020 is articulated.
  • An analysis of global demand trends on a regional basis, covering the major PGM end-use sectors (autocatalysis, jewellery, glass, petroleum, electronics, chemical, nitric acid, and medical/dental) and including the investment sector (such as exchange-traded funds).
  • An analysis of global autocatalytic demand, with special attention applied to environmental legislation affecting global emission standards, gasoline, diesel and hybrid trends, PGM loadings (thrifting) and the substitutability of platinum and palladium in this end-use sector. Future automotive developments and opportunities for PGM demand growth will also be commented on, including fuel cell technology, hybrid vehicles and other alternative fuels. A breakdown of autocatalyst history/forecasts by region and associated assumptions (automobile volume and associated intensity of PGM loadings) will be added.
  • An assessment of the future potential volumes of recycling, to include autocatalyst, jewellery and electronic scrapping rates. The analysis will cover collection rates, types and age of scrap supply, timing, contained metal and ratios, and the business case to recycle, as well as incentive prices and impacts from price volatility.
  • Reports of historical, current and future producer mine supply trends for PGMs, referencing recent expansions and their deliverability, other new projects, including the junior sector coming on-line and projects shelved or postponed. PGMs produced as by-products of base-metal mining will also be considered.
  • A comprehensive explanation of the long-term cost of producing virgin metal, taking account of the cost and profit dynamics of production on a regional basis (Western Bushveld, Eastern Bushveld, Zimbabwe, USA, Canada and Russia). Forward extrapolations of producer production profiles, costs and margins will be conducted to provide a short-, medium- and long-term picture of producers’ profitability. Mines which do not have PGMs as their primary output but which are, nevertheless, substantial PGM producers (‘Nornickel’, a nickel producer, and ‘Canadian other’, which includes the operations of Vale and Falconbridge) are also included in our analysis.
  • Producer profiles, using a consistent framework for comparison based on cash costs and excluding capital, financing and depreciation/amortisation charges. The basic cost measurement reflects primarily physical production costs and includes other cash costs incurred, being mainly corporate overheads, marketing and royalties, etc. Costs are calculated net of the credits arising from the sale of by-products (Net TCC/4E oz). Rand currency sensitivity comments will be included. Key components/assumptions for the cash cost curve will be defined.

The 2040 PGM Market Outlook Report

This new 300-page ground-breaking study examines, on a deep dive basis, the changing nature of the PGM market and metal prices from the likely effects of automotive technological advances.

The 2040 PGM Market Outlook Report

Find out more about our latest 2040 PGM Market Outlook Report.

The report

The report contains:

  • Vital information needed to best gauge the impacts in the usage of platinum, palladium, and rhodium as a result of shifts in powertrain (gasoline, diesel, hybrid, battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles), metal substitution and the potential emergence of significant autocatalyst recycling in China.
  • Long-term sensitivity analysis of automotive technology (where the impact of the accelerated production of electric vehicles is extrapolated beyond SFA’s traditional ten-year forecast period) and gives a detailed forecast evaluation of the PGM market (including metal prices) out to 2040. Specifically, the report will highlight the potential fallout from electric car inflection point scenarios in the 2020s on palladium and rhodium demand and prices. 
  • An analysis of the changing nature and economics of global supply, including the effect on the future supply of the restructuring of the SA industry and recent closures, as well as consideration and profiling of palladium-rich projects scheduled for start-up in the 2020s. An examination of the importance of chrome, iridium and ruthenium to mine revenue and the potential impact on supply.

Who should read this report

  • Juniors and mining companies with advanced projects, mines in development or operations ramping up to full production.
  • Investors and financiers requiring a long-term understanding of the risks to platinum-group metals from the rise of electric cars, which is key to investments in PGM mines and projects that are commissioned in the 2020s.
  • Fabricators and industrial end users requiring strategic direction on the long-term influences on the platinum-group metals markets.
  • Governments and manufacturers concerned about the availability of platinum-group metals for fuel cell powered cars and equipment.
  • New business entrants.

The Platinum Standard

Given the perpetual challenges the PGM industry faces, and the turning point at which it now sits, SFA (Oxford), spurred on by public demand, felt a certain responsibility to the industry as a trusted source of PGM analysis to create a publication that brings to light those issues – industrial, economic, and political – that we believe will shape the PGM industry of tomorrow.

One-half review, one-half preview, The Platinum Standard comprises analytical articles on those issues we believe will set the PGM agenda for the years ahead and is released annually in May on the eve of London Platinum Week.

Each issue also collates all the key industry data and indicators for the past 12 months, taking account of the major factors that have impacted PGM supply, demand, and pricing over that period. This data is then inserted into SFA (Oxford)’s trusted brand of supply-demand tables to create a comprehensive, full-year view of the PGM markets.